Week 6 Picks 2019

Liberty -4.5 at New Mexico State: I think NMSU still has more room to fall in the power ratings. Liberty has shown some promise with wins over Buffalo and appears to be healthy. When you look at per game metrics, this shouldn’t be as close of a game as projected – I would put it closer to a 10 point spread.

UMass + 27 at FIU: I can’t believe I’m betting on UMass. This feels like catching a falling knife but UMass is currently 33 points below the average team – if they finished there it would make history as one of the worst teams. There’s really nowhere to go but up from here. All my numbers have this around a 21 point spread, so let’s take the points.

Penn State -24.5 at Purdue: After the injury of Rondale Moore, Purdue is even more banged up than before. Expect them to struggle to move the ball much at Penn State.

Michigan State +20.5 at Ohio State: Expect Michigan State’s defense to come ready to play today and make this a close game. Not sure about the offense. But historically the Spartans always make this one close. Numerically a 20 point spread is justified but it also assumes Ohio State is basically tied for #1 in the nation. If they’re anything below that, the spread should be more like 17.

Week 4 Bets 2019

Nevada vs UTEP UNDER 58: So I couldn’t find any good spread picks this week but found great value in this total. Both teams have had recent RB injuries and the offense has not looked the same since (especially for Nevada). UTEP has also been playing a backup QB since Week 1. I think this total should be much lower around 50.

Week 3 Bets 2019

Better late than never. I’m back!

Kansas State +8 at Mississippi State: K-State currently has the highest pass efficiency rating in college football. Chris Kleiman has had a successful career as an underdog and today should be no exception.

Oklahoma -19.5 at UCLA: This game is going to get ugly in a hurry. End of story.

Maryland -5 at Temple: Despite going against some expert picks on this, I love Maryland’s hot start and refuse to downplay the importance of their high scoring margins, especially against Syracuse.

UCF -6.5 vs Stanford: Value play on this, grabbed the line early when fair market value I have around 10 points.