ATS Picks Total Season (16-10, 61.5%)
ATS Picks This Week (3-4, 43%)
Eh, so it wasn’t the best week. Realistically I broke even (3-3) but had a 4th loss because I was unable to hedge out of my Louisville bet. The line dropped from 8.5 to 6 by the time that buying points was available, and since it would have been an expensive hedge I had to just stick with the bet, despite being against the bet due to Virginia’s recent success.
If it’s any consolation, I did go 4-1 in my just-for-fun FCS picks. Maybe I should start doing that more.
Notre Dame -27.5 vs Purdue (L) – Notre Dame. Beat Michigan 31-0. Good team. Purdue. Lost to Central Michigan by 21. At home. To a directional school that calls themselves “The Chips.” This should be a no brainer, right? Wrong. Thanks for nothing, Irish. In other news, Purdue is a 7.5 point underdog next week at home against an FCS team: #13 FCS Southern Illinois. The Salukis.
Baylor -27.5 at Buffalo placed in preseason (W) ☆ – This was just free money. You can’t handicap Baylor vs inferior teams using a simple “power rating differential” type scheme. Baylor causes less skilled defenses to break down. They’re faster, and all they have to do is run downfield and waive their hand, have a glass of lemonade, and wait for Bryce Petty’s ball to land in their hands on the end zone. Seriously. I can’t remember the last time that Baylor didn’t cover the 1Q, 1H, and game line against a non-AQ or FCS team. Not in the last two years at least.
Southeastern Louisiana +7.5 at Tulane (L) – I had high hopes for this to be one of those games where the FCS powerhouse came into a lower tier FBS school and stunned them, and I’d be all impressed with myself for knowing about SELA when nobody else did, and be like “look at me, I’m an FCS guru.” I even got a great deal on this line. I think the game finished at pk, so +7.5 was a steal. But by halftime I was not so amused. Tulane 28, SELA 3. (Really, guys?) The Lions made a comeback but it wasn’t enough. They had a terrible call overturned that would have put them within a touchdown near the end, and ended up dropping the game 35-20.
Georgia Southern +22 at Georgia Tech (W) – This was a great game, and it was supposed to be a great game. Who wouldn’t want to watch two of the most prolific running teams and in state rivals square off? Georgia Southern has made a run of its own from Division 2, to FCS, and now into the FBS. Georgia Tech was coached by legendary John Heisman, whose rushing attack was second to none. Georgia Southern effectively won the game, but the referees had other plans and helped Georgia Tech win. Georgia Tech had refused to play Georgia Southern for many years, just like Texas Tech had a period of refusing to not play TCU, and now we understand why Georgia Tech didn’t want to play them.
Wyoming +44 at Oregon (W) – Everyone bet Oregon, oh everyone bet Oregon. But 44 is a lot of points, and Wyoming isn’t that bad. More importantly, Oregon just didn’t have a reason to run up the score. It’s a better idea to rest and focus on conference play next week.
UAB -37 vs Alabama A&M (L) – The first quarter was a head scratcher, ending with an Alabama A&M leading 7-0. Early in the second, they scored again to make it 14-0. On what planet does this happen? The next two quarters went fine with UAB outscoring them 41-7, much more what we expected, but the fourth quarter ended in a stalemate as UAB just wanted to get off the field and stay healthy. It’s a shame they didn’t score more points earlier, and I really should have considered the fact that they likely wouldn’t be starting many stars in this one.
Louisville -8.5 at Virginia placed in preseason (L) – Bad deal. I was 100% against this bet by the time Saturday rolled around, but the line was at -6 by that time so to buy to -8.5 I’d be paying -160 and effectively have a 50-50 shot of losing $0 or losing $60. At that point I figured what the heck, let’s just leave the bet hanging even though I don’t like it. The original logic for the bet was pretty sound: books will discount Louisville after Charlie Strong leaving, and Petrino will exceed expectations (likely true to an extent), and that Virginia will probably hang around the bottom of the ACC and not improve that much (completely false). I was surprised to see that the UVA fans rushed the field as 6 point underdogs, but at least they didn’t rush the field when they were favored in the game.