Week 4 Bets – Part 2

Austin Peay +42 at Eastern Illinois: This one is a head scratcher, and I can’t help but wonder if someone meant to put in “24” as the line and accidentally put “42”. In any case, I have EIU handicapped as an 18 to 22 point favorite without performance adjustments. I feel so bad betting against EIU since they won me my biggest spread bet of all time, but this line is pretty out there. Sorry, Panthers! There are adjustments that need to be made on both teams for their horrible performance, so let’s take a look:

Austin Peay:

ATS performance relative to Sagarin ratings: -31, -13

Average ATS loss: 22 points

ATS Win: 0%


ATS performance relative to Sagarin ratings: -7, -17, -15

Average ATS loss: 13 points

ATS Win: 0%

Proper Point Spread Adjustment: EIU +4.8 net points to power rating

New Expected Spread: 23 to 27

Commentary: Here’s the difference between EIU and Austin Peay. EIU was a favorite in two of its games (-2.5, -10), and then proceeded to lose by double digits in both of those. Austin Peay was a huge underdog in its two games (+27, +38). When you’re a 38 point underdog and end up getting beat 63-0, that’s really not very material. We already know that the team they were playing was orders of magnitude better. What we learned about EIU on the other hand was that teams they were supposed to hang with (or supposed to beat easily) are turning out to be too much for the Panthers. So in a way, EIU’s average -13 ATS margin is equal to, or even worse than, Austin Peay’s -22 ATS margin. Either way,the jump from mid-20s to low-40s in the spread is absolutely unprecedented.



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