Week 14 Bets – Part 2

Louisville -13.5 to close out the Kentucky +14 bet: The Kentucky team just stormed midfield and stomped on the Cardinal. I want out of this bet. I had plenty of reasons for the +14 bet, but all of that goes to the wayside when you stomp on the cardinal.

I have a distinct memory of watching Concinnati do the same act in 2004, and I remember the game ending in a 70-7 massacre led by Bobby Petrino.

Later that season, ECU did the same, followed by Rutgers and Miami. Let’s do a quick inventory of how those games ended:

2004: Louisville 70, Cincinnati 7

2004: Louisville 59, East Carolina 7

2005: Louisville 56, Rutgers 5

2006: Louisville 31, Miami 7

Home Cooked Power Ratings – Week 13

Each week I build my own PR’s in excel once we get close to the end of the season and have sufficient data.

Take note of Georgia being rated so high going into a possible SEC championship game.

Ole Miss was clumsy and unfortunate against Arkansas, but they’re still a good team.

Marshall is in fact a top 25 team (their MOV makes up for their weak SOS).

Florida State is sandwiched between Florida and Georgia Tech.


Team Adj. PR
Alabama 102.85
Georgia 100.66
Mississippi 98.05
Baylor 96.89
TCU 96.32
Ohio State 96.10
Auburn 95.97
Oregon 94.90
Oklahoma 93.58
Michigan State 92.89
Wisconsin 92.78
Mississippi State 92.35
LSU 89.80
Southern California 88.08
Arkansas 87.99
Kansas State 87.50
Florida 87.09
Marshall 86.88
Nebraska 86.87
UCLA 86.80
Florida State 86.51
Georgia Tech 85.88
Tennessee 84.33
Miami-Florida 84.23
Missouri 83.69
Arizona State 83.62
West Virginia 83.30
Arizona 82.92
Utah 82.59
Texas A&M 82.51
Notre Dame 82.12
Louisville 81.51
Texas 80.57
Duke 80.13
Stanford 79.93
Louisiana Tech 79.14
Clemson 78.49
South Carolina 78.42
Washington 77.97
Memphis 77.84
Boise State 76.87
Minnesota 76.77
Virginia Tech 76.20
BYU 76.02
Iowa 75.62
Penn State 75.50
Colorado State 74.62
California 73.98
Michigan 73.75
Virginia 73.49
Boston College 72.85
Nevada 72.19
Cincinnati 72.16
Utah State 71.96
East Carolina 71.92
Kentucky 71.59
Maryland 71.32
Northwestern 70.95
Western Michigan 70.42
Syracuse 69.78
Oregon State 69.05
Washington State 68.93
Arkansas State 68.87
Central Florida(UCF) 68.57
Rutgers 68.53
Pittsburgh 68.28
Oklahoma State 68.24
Georgia Southern 68.00
Air Force 67.89
Temple 67.86
Navy 67.75
Iowa State 67.66
Rice 67.48
Colorado 67.43
North Carolina 67.21
Houston 67.06
Purdue 66.75
NC State 65.68
Toledo 65.58
Central Michigan 65.03
Western Kentucky 64.78
San Diego State 63.21
UTEP 63.16
Texas Tech 63.01
Kansas 62.88
Indiana 62.71
UAB 62.31
Hawai’i 62.29
Illinois 61.62
Louisiana-Lafayette 60.96
Northern Illinois 60.12
Vanderbilt 59.77
Middle Tennessee 59.09
New Mexico 58.97
Texas-San Antonio 58.75
Wyoming 58.70
South Alabama 58.67
Massachusetts 58.28
Appalachian State 58.27
San Jose State 57.67
Ball State 57.39
Louisiana-Monroe 57.21
Tulane 57.14
Fla. International 56.86
Akron 56.53
Florida Atlantic 55.77
Bowling Green 55.57
Wake Forest 55.22
Ohio 55.17
Fresno State 55.06
Texas State 54.80
South Florida 54.75
Miami-Ohio 54.47
Connecticut 53.62
Old Dominion 53.58
Tulsa 52.03
North Texas 50.74
Southern Miss 50.29
Army 50.19
Kent State 49.32
Idaho 49.15
Buffalo 49.05
UNLV 48.12
Troy 45.35
New Mexico State 42.72
SMU 40.78
Georgia State 40.27
Eastern Michigan 34.93

FCS FUN – Round 1

It’s that time of year again! I ran a simulator for the odds of who will win the FCS Playoff. NDSU is the clear favorite, but a few others may come out and surprise some people not too familiar with FCS football.

I really like a few non-NDSU teams. Namely, EWU with VA returning, and Illinois State.

North Dakota State 39.6% 53.0% 71.2%
Illinois State 10.5% 24.1% 37.3%
New Hampshire 8.6% 23.7% 51.4%
Jacksonville State 13.1% 22.7% 56.8%
Eastern Washington 5.3% 16.2% 31.5%
Northern Iowa 6.9% 15.6% 23.9%
Chattanooga 4.1% 13.0% 31.7%
Villanova 3.1% 7.3% 23.7%
South Dakota State 3.7% 7.0% 13.1%
Coastal Carolina 1.8% 4.8% 12.2%
Fordham 0.5% 2.5% 8.6%
Montana 0.4% 2.5% 7.0%
Indiana State 0.3% 1.7% 5.1%
SE Louisiana 0.7% 1.6% 6.4%
Sam Houston State 0.6% 1.6% 7.2%
Richmond 0.3% 0.9% 3.1%
Liberty 0.2% 0.7% 3.5%
Eastern Kentucky 0.1% 0.5% 2.5%
James Madison 0.1% 0.4% 2.3%
Sacred Heart 0.0% 0.1% 0.8%
Stephen F. Austin 0.0% 0.1% 0.5%
Montana State 0.0% 0.1% 0.5%
Morgan State 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Week 14 Bets – Part 1

Florida +10 at Florida State – The big question is not “Will FSU Cover?” but “Will FSU Win?” Enough said. The line should probably be -3. Factor in rivalry games and maybe even lower. Muschamp is ready to ball.

Western Kentucky +23 at Marshall – This is not an overreaction to Marshall’s game at UAB. Far from it. It’s a testament to WKU’s offense and my belief in its capability to put up some quality points on Marshall. Yes yes, Marshall actually does have a defense. Seriously, Marshall has the #6 scoring defense in FBS. But how many opponents that they’ve faced have the tempo and potency of WKU, who ranks #8 in scoring offense? The closest they’ve seen is ODU and MTSU. This is just so many points. And most handicaps are at 20…only Elo has it at 23. I’ll take the overvalued line.

Kentucky +14 at Louisville – This line is 12 points raw, but with Louisville coming off a tough road game at Notre Dame and Kentucky having a bye week, this line should be closer to 9. Add in the rivalry factor, and you’re looking at what should be a pretty low spread compared to what was offered.

Results After Week 13

Overall: 56-38 (59.6%)

This week: 7-3 (70%)

Western Kentucky -6 vs UTSA (W) – That one got ugly. And you thought UTSA couldn’t reach anymore lows. Who would have thought that this senior-laden team would be nowhere close to becoming bowl eligible?

Vanderbilt +30 at Mississippi State (L) – Come on Vanderbilt, you had two weeks to prepare and you can’t even score a point?

Boston College +20.5 at Florida State (W) – Will Florida State ever cover the spread? No, they will not. Look out when the Gators come to town next week.

Virginia +7 vs Miami (W) – UVA took four days off to rest during their two week bye stretch. And it really showed. This is just such a classic betting move taking the bye week team, at home nonetheless, against a bruised up team coming off a defeating loss.

Georgia State +39.5 at Clemson (W) – Can Clemson even score 40 points? No, no they cannot.

Samford +40.5 at Auburn (W)  – Auburn started out slow against Samford. Like, really really slow. Samford is a pretty decent team though by FCS standards.

Eastern Kentucky +32.5 at Florida (L) – This game was just terrible to watch, but at least it was interesting. The Colonels did a fake punt (failed), an onside kick (failed) and went for it on 4th down (failed). When EKU caught a touchdown, the receiver spiked the ball, did the Gator Chomp, and got an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. Then they reviewed the play, ruled it an incomplete catch, and then pushed them back 15 yards for celebrating the non-TD. They also had an awesome play in which the running back in motion ran across the QB right as the ball was snapped and it bounced off him for an almost-fumble.

Charleston Southern +43 at Georgia (L) – I really wanted more points than this and you can see why. This one got ugly early.

Western Carolina +51 or so at Alabama (W) – I thought the Catamounts really had them when they took the lead 7-0. Kidding, of course. But my gosh 51 points is so much.

Week 13 Bets – Part 3

Charleston Southern +43 at Georgia – I was really hoping this line would go a lot higher, but whatever. CHSO has a respectable rush defense by FCS standards. Georgia is a team that really runs up the score on cupcakes, but hopefully they will slow this one down in the second half and run out the clock to cover.

Week 13 Bets – Part 1

Bets Placed:

Western Kentucky -6 vs UTSA – I didn’t have any agenda to take this bet originally, but I had WKU handicapped at -9 so when the line game out at -6 I figured I’d take it. Plus UTSA just can’t score, and WKU, well…they really know how to score.

Vanderbilt +30 at Mississippi State – Classsic hangover game. Mississippi State played a rough game against Alabama and is now beat down. They may review Vanderbilit tape this week, but let’s be real. Everyone at Mississippi State has their eyes set on the next game – traveling to Ole Miss for the Egg Bowl and a shot at the playoffs. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, spent the past week on a bye week, resting up and studying film to play their best game against the #4 ranked team in the country. One more thing – if Mississippi State does get a big lead, they’ll be pulling all of their starters out very quickly to rest up for Ole Miss and not risk getting injured.

Boston College +20.5 at Florida State – Still fading Florida State into oblivion. I have the line at 15.5 raw. Add to that the fact that BC is coming off a bye week, and we’re looking at a line of 12.5 or so.

Virginia +7 vs Miami – UVA had a bye week to rest up, while the Canes go on the road after a brutal and demoralizing defeat.

Georgia State +39.5 at Clemson – Can Clemson even score 40 points? Georgia State may be the worst team in FBS, but they are at least coming off a bye week. Will Clemson get caught looking ahead at the South Carolina game?

Samford +40.5 at Auburn – I’ve seen Samford firsthand this year, and have been following them loosely since the TCU game. They have a handful of respectable wins, including two shutouts. With Auburn in a bit of a tailspin and, more importantly, looking ahead to the Iron Bowl, there’s no reason Auburn should cover here.

Eastern Kentucky +32.5 at Florida – Of course we have every reason to fade Florida with all of the Muschamp drama. But beyond that, this is just as much about EKU. The Colonels are 8-2, with their two losses coming from a very respectable Jacksonville State team, and a bizarre road loss at Tennessee Tech. They also have a win at Miami Ohio, for what that’s worth.



Marshall -20 at UAB – I like Marshall a lot, and am a proponent of them at least being ranked by the playoff committee. Add to that the fact that UAB’s football program is in disarray after they’ve begun talks to discontinue the program. However, at -20 I’m having to overpay for this line, and I have to wonder when the music will stop for Marshall (just in terms of them covering the spread, not regarding their undefeated season).

Charleston Southern +41.5 at Georgia – I’m waiting for the public to bid this line up a lot higher. Georgia has had a pretty easy time running all over weaker teams, so I need to get as many points as I can here. For what it’s worth, Charleston Southern is #11 in run defense and has a solid rushing game of its own, and that means they’ll be able to easily wear down the clock. But still – a look at Georgia’s games this year shows they have no mercy on these teams.

Western Carolina +51.5 or so at Alabama – This line isn’t even out yet anywhere. What gives?

Results After Week 12

Overall: 49-35 (58.3%)

This week: 2-1 (66.7%)

TCU -24.5 at Kansas (L) – Let’s just not talk about it.

Western Michigan -23.5 vs Eastern Michigan (W) – The score at halftime was 41-0, and this one was over before it even started. What’s most impressive is that EMU gained 370 yards but only scored 7 points (on a long TD reception). Exclude that 76 yard TD, and they basically managed to gain 294 yards and, with 3 turnovers, scored zero points.

Iowa -3 at Illinois – See, I told you Iowa wasn’t so bad. 528 total yards of offense. While the game did get a bit out of hand, it wasn’t unreasonable to expect that Iowa was a much better team here.