Mount Union vs UW Whitewater Preview

The Division 3 championship features two very familiar teams, set to face off in the “Stagg Bowl” this Friday on national television. The audience will be mostly comprised of bargoers watching TVs that are pre-set to ESPNU, and of course, weird people like me who enjoy watching Division 3 football.

Believe it or not, these two teams have faced each other in source 9 of the past 10 championship games. That’s insane. It has also bred actual hatred between the opposing fanbases. Let’s take a look at both teams and what they’ve gone through to make it to get here.

http://jasonpufahl.com/?x=viagra-jelly-pfizer-from-online-canadian-pharmacy Mount Union (14-0)

Mount Union’s most impressive stat is their average margin of victory. http://awakeninginlove.com/?x=viagra-show-up-on-drug-test They’ve won games by an average of 51 points per game. They rank #1 in scoring offense (60.3 points) and #2 in scoring defense (9.3 points). They also ranked #1 in total offense (595.2 YPG) and #3 in total defense (239.6 YPG allowed). They’re not a passing team, or a running team, running some air raid or triple option scheme, but rather a well-balanced attack, that’s just good at all aspects of the game. Kevin Burke at QB is the most notable standout, breaking the 4000 passing yards mark, averaging 10.1 yards per pass attempt, and the highest pass efficiency in Division 3 (187.7). He also has 65% completions, 49 TDs, 5 INTs.

Mount Union is also better than a lot of teams you might know. Some hypothetical lines if these teams played on a neutral field:

Mount Union -1 vs New Hampshire (#1 Division 1 FCS Playoff Seed )

Mount Union -1 vs Kansas

Mount Union -7 vs Bowling Green (Played in MAC Championship)

Mount Union -20 vs SMU (worst FBS school)

Mount Union -62 vs Davidson (worst FCS school)

source link UW Whitewater (14-0)

Whitewater has won their games by an average of under 30 points. Jeez, get with the program, guys. Matt Behrendt at QB is definitely the standout with 3300 passing yards and ranking #6 in pass efficiency. Whitewater has not had as prolfiic of an individual runner, so they have relied more on the passing game.

 

http://unitingfreshfoods.com.au/?x=blue-sky-drugs-viagra-vs-cialis Statistical Comparison:

follow link Team http://consistentcare.org/?x=generic-viagra-jelly-usa PPG http://thefoolishobsession.com/wp-json/oembed/1.0/embed?url=http://thefoolishobsession.com/sukin-super-greens/ Opp PPG see Margin
buying generic viagra online illegal drug Mount Union http://theacademyolp.org/?search=female-viagra-australia&6e4=1c 60.3 buy online pharmacy viagra jelly 9.3 source site 51.0
Mary Hardin-Baylor 52.4 16.3 36.1
John Carroll 48.2 13.4 34.8
Wesley 48.9 14.3 34.6
Linfield 45.1 13.2 31.9
http://altacadvisor.com/?search=reglan-drug-contraindications-with-viagra&bdf=19 Wis.-Whitewater here 39.9 xanax drugs similar to viagra 10.6 http://monterreymexican.com/?search=buy-generic-viagra-online&383=9a 29.3
Wartburg 41.8 14.9 26.9
Thomas More 45 20 25.0
Wabash 38.3 14 24.3
St. Scholastica 38.9 15.9 23.0

 

click here Team YPG Opp YPG YPG Margin
Mount Union 595.2 239.6 355.6
Thomas More 533.8 291.7 242.1
Wesley 488.9 254.2 234.7
John Carroll 482.2 251.1 231.1
Linfield 453.1 235.8 217.3
Wis.-Whitewater 483.1 283.6 199.5
St. John Fisher 455.5 268.6 186.9
Wabash 426.1 240.1 186
Wartburg 474.4 298.1 176.3
Illinois Col. 497.5 332.3 165.2

 

Handicapping Notes

Division 3 football is so lopsided it’s stupid. It’s mostly these teams’ fault, but still. A glance at the Top 20 shows us that these 2 teams are a world apart from the rest of the competition. The #1 team would be a 68 point favorite against the #10 team on a neutral field.

Tier 1: Mount Union, UW-Whitewater – In a leagure of their own, UW is an 18+ favorite against anyone else, and Mount Union is a 40+ point favorite over anyone else. That’s nuts.

Tier 2: Linfield, Wesley, John Carroll, Wartburg, Mary Hardin-Baylor – These are the teams that occasionally give the top 2 teams fits. John Carroll almost beat Mount Union, playing a close game against them twice. John Carroll also has a total of 22 blocked punts and kicks (!!!!) this season. So on average, if you go to one of their games, you can expect to to see them block at least one of each.

Mount Union 105
UW-Whitewater 87
Linfield 65
Wesley 58
John Carroll 58
Wartburg 57
Mary Hardin-Baylor 56
St. Shomas 38
St. Johns MN 37
Widener 36
UW-Oshkosh 36
Johns Hopkins 35
St John Fisher 35
UW-Platteville 34
Concordia-Moorhead 32
Heidelberg 31
Wabast 30
Hobart 30
Bethel 30
Thomas More 30

 

FCS PLAYOFF ODDS – SEMIFINALS

Semifinals time! If you thought Army vs Navy was the only game last week, you missed out on a great NDSU vs Coastal Carolina game, as well as an impressive performance by Illinois State on the red turf.

Team WIN Odds
North Dakota State 45.81% +118
Illinois State 36.21% +176
New Hampshire 9.90% +910
Sam Houston State 8.08% +1138

Now is where things start to get real for NDSU. Their odds to win are 45.81%, but that’s not much of an improvement from 41.7% before they played their first game. Their two last tests will be rough. Don’t let SHSU fool you as a lower seed – this team is made up of a whole lot of bad news bears, former FBS players who got kicked off for various reasons, and some of whom will likely be drafted. They may also have to face Illinois State, who started hot earlier this year with a 5-0 ATS start and hasn’t looked back since. These guys are a very complete team. And then there’s New Hampshire, who I’ve never really been too impressed by. When Toledo beat them badly earlier this year, I figured Toledo must be really good. Turns out I was wrong, and that UNH was more of a flop. They got the #1 ranking, but only from scraping by. They’re essentially the FloridaState of the FCS Playoffs.

Now I will admit my lines are slightly different than 5Dimes, mainly in that I think Illinois State is better than they do. I guess we’ll see how that goes. After seeing them stomp EWU last week, I won’t be surprised if they definitely cover that -4.5 spread against UNH.

5Dimes Lines:

NDSU -14 vs SHSU

Illinois State -4.5 at New Hampshire

My lines:

NDSU -12 vs SHSU

Illinois State -8 at New Hampshire

My championship lines:

NDSU -2 vs Illinois State

NDSU -10 vs New Hampshire

Illinois State -10 vs SHSU

SHSU -2 vs New Hampshire

Luckiest Teams of 2014

In a continuation of my last article on Pythagorean Expectation, we’re looking back at the luckiest and unluckiest teams of 2014. This is basically the difference between the actual amount of games won, and Pythagorean expectation (the amount of games you should have won, with an even amount of luck). Can you guess who the #1 luckiest team in the country is? Drumroll…..

#1 Florida State – That’s right! America’s sweeheart, Jameis Winston and the Criminoles won the hearts of millions this season with their persistent shenanigans, court trials, and their overall refusal to lose. This team isn’t even that good to begin with. According to Sagarin they would be the 5th best Big 12 team, and 8th best SEC team.

Remember those trick candles when you were a kid? You blew them out, thought they were dead, and then they kept coming back to life, to the point that it was really, really frustrating? Yeah, that’s you FSU.

#2 NIU – I know NIU had 10 wins, 11 if you count the MAC championship – but if you look closer, they had 4 games withing 10 points or fewer, and they won each game. Close calls against Kent St, EMU, and Ohio are not too impressive. In fact, their MOV for the year was 8.5 point. In an 11-2 season. That’s pretty questionable, and a reason I’m not touching that Marshall line.

#3 Rutgers – I wasn’t even aware Rutgers won 7 games until putting this together. How did that happen? Wasn’t Gary Nova injured for part of that stretch? Congrats to having a 7-5 season despite an average margin of -5.3, as in losing by 5.3 points on average. Goes to show what a “murderers row” that Big Ten really is.

#127 Arkansas – Everyone kinda knows by now that Arkansas is really good, so this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Losing to Alabama by 1. Losing to Mississippi State by 7. Texas A&M in OT. Missouri by 7. The list goes on. But I’m glad they’re going to a bowl because my gosh, they’re the best 6-6 team I’ve ever seen. Like, so good that they’d be favored over Florida State. Sagarin has them ranked #12.

#128 Idaho – Ok, so you probably don’t follow Idaho football. Maybe you didn’t know Idaho had a football team, or that they’re an FBS Independent as a matter of fact. Their coach is Paul Petrino (yes, brother of that Bobby Petrino) in his second year, and they’re going to be very improved in the next year. The offense actually gained 412 yards per game. Now if only they could get the defense to stop giving up 462 yards per game to horrendously bad teams. With that said, they hung in there in almost every game, and given their output should have gotten at least 2 more wins. With an average MOV of -10, it’s expected to win around 3 games, not 1. But just as we saw plenty of 1-win teams bounce back this year (Cal, WMU), we’ll see something similar from the Vandals.

Team PYTH WIN Actual Wins Luck
Florida St 8.47 12 3.53
N Illinois 7.24 10 2.76
Rutgers 4.26 7 2.74
Bowling Grn 4.27 7 2.73
Missouri 7.39 10 2.61
Arizona 7.63 10 2.37
LA Lafayette 5.86 8 2.14
Illinois 4.00 6 2.00
Maryland 5.05 7 1.95
Fresno St 4.10 6 1.90
Ohio 4.11 6 1.89
Utah 6.13 8 1.87
Air Force 7.24 9 1.76
UCLA 7.26 9 1.74
GA Tech 8.45 10 1.55
Oklahoma St 4.46 6 1.54
Toledo 6.54 8 1.46
N Carolina 4.55 6 1.45
Colorado St 8.56 10 1.44
Arizona St 7.58 9 1.42
S Florida 2.61 4 1.39
Rice 5.61 7 1.39
Old Dominion 4.61 6 1.39
Baylor 9.66 11 1.34
Boise State 8.69 10 1.31
E Michigan 0.78 2 1.22
NC State 5.80 7 1.20
Kansas 1.84 3 1.16
Vanderbilt 1.85 3 1.15
Tulane 1.87 3 1.13
TX El Paso 5.90 7 1.10
Cincinnati 7.91 9 1.09
S Alabama 4.91 6 1.09
Middle Tenn 4.92 6 1.08
Wyoming 2.92 4 1.08
Oregon 9.93 11 1.07
S Mississippi 1.95 3 1.05
Wake Forest 1.95 3 1.05
Wisconsin 9.06 10 0.94
Marshall 10.12 11 0.88
Oregon St 4.16 5 0.84
Texas State 6.19 7 0.81
Minnesota 7.22 8 0.78
Utah State 8.26 9 0.74
UTSA 3.27 4 0.73
Ohio State 10.29 11 0.71
Alabama 10.33 11 0.67
Texas A&M 6.33 7 0.67
Clemson 8.34 9 0.66
GA Southern 8.36 9 0.64
San Jose St 2.38 3 0.62
Central FL 8.40 9 0.60
BYU 7.40 8 0.60
Army 3.43 4 0.57
Louisville 8.44 9 0.56
TCU 10.45 11 0.55
Duke 8.45 9 0.55
S Methodist 0.51 1 0.49
Kentucky 4.52 5 0.48
Central Mich 6.52 7 0.48
Troy 2.52 3 0.48
North Texas 3.60 4 0.40
Nevada 6.61 7 0.39
Texas Tech 3.65 4 0.35
W Virginia 6.66 7 0.34
Akron 4.69 5 0.31
Indiana 3.70 4 0.30
Miss State 9.74 10 0.26
Nebraska 8.78 9 0.22
Kansas St 8.79 9 0.21
Texas 5.81 6 0.19
W Kentucky 6.82 7 0.18
Auburn 7.84 8 0.16
E Carolina 7.84 8 0.16
Connecticut 1.86 2 0.14
Notre Dame 6.86 7 0.14
S Carolina 5.89 6 0.11
Northwestern 4.89 5 0.11
Boston Col 6.95 7 0.05
App State 6.99 7 0.01
San Diego St 7.01 7 -0.01
California 5.03 5 -0.03
Iowa 7.06 7 -0.06
W Michigan 8.10 8 -0.10
Michigan St 10.12 10 -0.12
LA Monroe 4.18 4 -0.18
New Mexico 4.21 4 -0.21
Tennessee 6.22 6 -0.22
UAB 6.24 6 -0.24
Buffalo 5.25 5 -0.25
Pittsburgh 6.25 6 -0.25
Temple 6.26 6 -0.26
LSU 8.26 8 -0.26
VA Tech 6.29 6 -0.29
Syracuse 3.34 3 -0.34
Hawaii 4.39 4 -0.39
Washington 8.40 8 -0.40
UNLV 2.40 2 -0.40
Arkansas St 7.41 7 -0.41
Memphis 9.42 9 -0.42
Purdue 3.46 3 -0.46
Navy 6.47 6 -0.47
Kent State 2.47 2 -0.47
Michigan 5.51 5 -0.51
USC 8.58 8 -0.58
Fla Atlantic 3.59 3 -0.59
N Mex State 2.59 2 -0.59
Florida Intl 4.60 4 -0.60
Georgia 9.63 9 -0.63
Virginia 5.71 5 -0.71
Miami (FL) 6.77 6 -0.77
Penn State 6.79 6 -0.79
Houston 7.81 7 -0.81
Ball State 5.83 5 -0.83
Georgia State 1.83 1 -0.83
Iowa State 2.84 2 -0.84
LA Tech 8.86 8 -0.86
Mississippi 9.86 9 -0.86
Wash State 3.87 3 -0.87
Oklahoma 8.93 8 -0.93
Tulsa 3.01 2 -1.01
Stanford 8.12 7 -1.12
Florida 7.45 6 -1.45
Miami (OH) 3.67 2 -1.67
U Mass 4.67 3 -1.67
Colorado 3.87 2 -1.87
Arkansas 7.89 6 -1.89
Idaho 3.35 1 -2.35

Pythagorean Wins – 2014

While actual wins are a fine way to judge a team (kind of), certain teams are luckier than others. Michigan State in 2012 lost 6 games by a combined 11 points. TCU in 2013 lost 4 games by a combined 11 points, including a 3-point overtime loss. Then there are the opposite cases, when teams like Auburn 2013 and Florida State 2014 seem to always win close games. Those teams will say they “just find a way to win” but let’s be honest – catches like this  and returns like this are nothing short of miraculously lucky. As a result there is a better way to adjust for this luck. By using the Pythagorean Expectation, we can estimate how many games this team would win if they performed the same (scored and allowed the same average number of points they did this season) but had an equal number of lucky breaks. The formula is relatively simple:

(Points Scored ^ 2.37) / (Points Scored ^ 2.37 + Points Allowed ^ 2.37)

The 2.37 exponent is basically solved in a regression to best fit the results. And honestly you won’t get too drastically different results using 2 or 3 as your exponent.

Let’s take a look below at what teams’ Pythagorean wins are for this year. Note that conference championships are not included in this data set:

Team OFF PTS DEF PTS PYTH WIN % PYTH WIN
TCU 46.7 20.9 87% 10.45
Alabama 36.2 16.8 86% 10.33
Ohio State 45.2 21.2 86% 10.29
Marshall 44.8 22 84% 10.12
Michigan St 42.9 21.1 84% 10.12
Oregon 45 23.2 83% 9.93
Mississippi 28.8 15.1 82% 9.86
Miss State 36.5 19.7 81% 9.74
Baylor 46.9 25.8 80% 9.66
Georgia 40.5 22.4 80% 9.63
Memphis 32.1 18.6 78% 9.42
Wisconsin 34.4 21.4 75% 9.06
Oklahoma 38.9 24.8 74% 8.93
LA Tech 38.4 24.8 74% 8.86
Kansas St 34.1 22.3 73% 8.79
Nebraska 38 24.9 73% 8.78
Boise State 39.8 26.5 72% 8.69
USC 35.1 23.8 72% 8.58
Colorado St 34.7 23.6 71% 8.56
Florida St 34.6 23.9 71% 8.47
GA Tech 36.9 25.6 70% 8.45
Duke 30.7 21.3 70% 8.45
Louisville 29.5 20.5 70% 8.44
Washington 28.5 22.1 65% 8.40
Central FL 27 18.9 70% 8.40
GA Southern 35.1 24.7 70% 8.36
Clemson 26.2 18.5 70% 8.34
Utah State 26.3 20.8 64% 8.26
LSU 25 17.9 69% 8.26
Stanford 23.9 17.5 68% 8.12
W Michigan 33.6 24.7 67% 8.10
Cincinnati 35.4 26.8 66% 7.91
Arkansas 28.3 21.5 66% 7.89
E Carolina 35.8 27.4 65% 7.84
Auburn 36.3 27.8 65% 7.84
Houston 27.7 21.3 65% 7.81
Arizona 34.8 27.5 64% 7.63
Arizona St 36.3 28.9 63% 7.58
Florida 28.3 23 62% 7.45
Arkansas St 36 29.4 62% 7.41
BYU 33.6 27.5 62% 7.40
Missouri 26.5 21.7 62% 7.39
UCLA 32.9 27.5 60% 7.26
N Illinois 30.2 25.3 60% 7.24
Air Force 29.7 24.9 60% 7.24
Minnesota 28.2 23.7 60% 7.22
Iowa 28 24.1 59% 7.06
San Diego St 24.6 21.3 58% 7.01
App State 31.4 27.3 58% 6.99
Boston Col 24.6 21.5 58% 6.95
Notre Dame 33 29.2 57% 6.86
W Kentucky 44 39.2 57% 6.82
Penn State 19.8 17.7 57% 6.79
Miami (FL) 28.9 25.9 56% 6.77
W Virginia 31.3 28.5 56% 6.66
Nevada 31.6 29 55% 6.61
Toledo 32.6 30.2 55% 6.54
Central Mich 25.6 23.8 54% 6.52
Navy 31.5 29.5 54% 6.47
Texas A&M 30.9 29.5 53% 6.33
VA Tech 22.4 21.5 52% 6.29
Temple 19.8 19.1 52% 6.26
Pittsburgh 28.9 27.9 52% 6.25
UAB 32.5 31.4 52% 6.24
Tennessee 26 25.2 52% 6.22
Texas State 31 30.2 52% 6.19
Utah 27.8 27.3 51% 6.13
TX El Paso 28.3 28.7 49% 5.90
S Carolina 32.6 33.1 49% 5.89
LA Lafayette 29.3 29.9 49% 5.86
Ball State 28.2 28.9 49% 5.83
Texas 22.6 23.2 48% 5.81
NC State 28.7 29.5 48% 5.80
Virginia 24.1 25.1 48% 5.71
Rice 28.7 30.3 47% 5.61
Michigan 20.9 22.4 46% 5.51
Buffalo 31.2 34.7 44% 5.25
Maryland 27 30.9 42% 5.05
California 36.7 42.1 42% 5.03
Middle Tenn 28.9 33.7 41% 4.92
S Alabama 22.1 25.8 41% 4.91
Northwestern 22.9 26.8 41% 4.89
Akron 20.9 25.2 39% 4.69
U Mass 27.3 33 39% 4.67
Old Dominion 31.9 38.9 38% 4.61
Florida Intl 23 28.1 38% 4.60
N Carolina 32.3 39.8 38% 4.55
Kentucky 26.5 32.8 38% 4.52
Oklahoma St 26.3 32.8 37% 4.46
Hawaii 20.4 27.1 34% 4.39
Bowling Grn 28.2 36.2 36% 4.27
Rutgers 24.5 31.5 36% 4.26
New Mexico 27.7 35.9 35% 4.21
LA Monroe 20.1 26.2 35% 4.18
Oregon St 25.4 33.2 35% 4.16
Ohio 19.3 25.4 34% 4.11
Fresno St 25.8 34 34% 4.10
Illinois 26.5 35.5 33% 4.00
Wash State 29.4 40.2 32% 3.87
Colorado 28.5 39 32% 3.87
Indiana 24.8 34.9 31% 3.70
Miami (OH) 23.5 33.2 31% 3.67
Texas Tech 29.5 41.8 30% 3.65
North Texas 22.6 32.3 30% 3.60
Fla Atlantic 24 34.4 30% 3.59
Purdue 22.8 33.4 29% 3.46
Army 21.4 31.5 29% 3.43
Idaho 25 37.3 28% 3.35
Syracuse 16.2 24.2 28% 3.34
UTSA 17.1 25.9 27% 3.27
Tulsa 24.7 39.2 25% 3.01
Wyoming 21.5 34.7 24% 2.92
Iowa State 24 39.3 24% 2.84
S Florida 15.5 26.6 22% 2.61
N Mex State 24.2 41.7 22% 2.59
Troy 20.6 36 21% 2.52
Kent State 16.4 29 21% 2.47
UNLV 22.7 40.7 20% 2.40
San Jose St 17.3 31.2 20% 2.38
S Mississippi 18.4 36.8 16% 1.95
Wake Forest 14.1 28.2 16% 1.95
Tulane 14.3 29.2 16% 1.87
Connecticut 15.2 31.1 15% 1.86
Vanderbilt 16.8 34.5 15% 1.85
Kansas 16.4 33.7 15% 1.84
Georgia State 21.3 43.9 15% 1.83
E Michigan 13.7 42.1 7% 0.78
S Methodist 11.1 41.3 4% 0.51

FCS PLAYOFF ODDS – QUARTERFINALS

We’ve made it to the quarterfinals! NDSU got through by the skin of its teeth. #3 Jacksonville State was not as lucky, getting upset at home by SHSU. That’s our first big upset of the tournament, and the first top 4 team to be out. It’s fun to see New Hampshire at #1 since they’re actually not the best team at all.

See guys, isn’t this much better than the playoff committee?

Team WIN CHAMPIONSHIP GAME FINAL FOUR
North Dakota State 46.8% 68.9% 83.7%
Illinois State 25.7% 49.3% 69.5%
Chattanooga 7.0% 19.4% 49.8%
New Hampshire 5.4% 17.2% 50.2%
Eastern Washington 4.5% 14.2% 30.5%
Villanova 3.8% 12.0% 55.3%
Sam Houston State 3.6% 10.4% 44.7%
Coastal Carolina 3.3% 8.7% 16.3%

Results After Week 15

Overall: 59-39 (60.2%)

This week: 1-1 (50%)

LA Tech +14 at Marshall (W) – Again, Marshall is a great team but this was just too many points. It’s nice to see LA Tech make a solid comeback after falling when Sonny left the program. Despite losing Kato next year, Marshall has a lot of offensive talent returning. Their real big issue will be their defense which is very senior. Looking forward to seeing both in decent bowls. LA Tech is actually better than the average Big Ten team, and should win. Marshall is favored over NIU, which is a great matchup that a lot of people who have any remote interest in non-P5 teams will want to watch.

Kansas State +8.5 at Baylor (L) – The yards per pass attempt stats in this one are nuts. Kansas State 11.1, Baylor 10.0. I’m tempted to say Baylor went to the ground game “a lot” (37 rushes, 172 yards) but maybe it just looked that way because they seem to always be passing. Baylor will be getting a very fun yin vs yang matchup in Michigan State, a matchup I think Baylor will have the advantage in. UCLA and Kansas State also a fun matchup between two very deserving teams.

 

Week 15 Bets – Part 2

Remember when I said there was only going to be one bet? Well I guess I lied.

Kansas State +8.5 at Baylor – I bet K-State feels pretty disrespected right now. Everyone is talking about “When Baylor beats K-State…” It’s tough to bet against a team on College Gameday, but with all the self-inflicted distractions, injury concerns, etc. I’ll fade Baylor in this one.

FCS Playoff Odds – Round 2

After a week 1 that went pretty much as expected, little has changed at the top of our FCS win probabilities. Probably because there were no upsets, and the top teams didn’t play. But the excitement is coming!

Team WIN CHAMPIONSHIP GAME FINAL FOUR
North Dakota State 41.7% 56.5% 71.4%
Illinois State 14.2% 29.8% 40.2%
Northern Iowa 12.1% 24.8% 33.1%
Jacksonville State 10.5% 20.8% 59.0%
South Dakota State 4.4% 8.9% 15.5%
New Hampshire 3.3% 12.7% 37.8%
Chattanooga 3.1% 10.2% 29.5%
Eastern Washington 2.7% 10.3% 21.6%
Indiana State 2.5% 8.0% 22.3%
Coastal Carolina 1.9% 5.1% 11.5%
Villanova 1.4% 3.9% 18.4%
Liberty 0.8% 2.3% 11.0%
Sam Houston State 0.6% 2.2% 11.7%
Fordham 0.4% 2.4% 10.4%
Montana 0.2% 1.7% 5.1%
Richmond 0.1% 0.4% 1.6%

Week 15 Bets – Part 1

How sad that the college football season is already coming to a close. I feel like it was just yesterday that we were watching the first kickoff. Everyone was talking about how Oklahoma was the best team in the country, and how “Kenny Trill” would win the Heisman, if only he could keep up against repeat-frontrunner Jameis Winston, who of course would be torching ACC foes all year.

One last bet for the regular season and that should be it. After that we’ll be getting ready for bowl season.

Bets Placed

LA Tech +14 at Marshall – Sorry, Herd. It’s not you, it’s the line. I’ve got this line at about 6 to 6.5, and I’d say 8.5 at the absolute highest. Safe to say the LA Tech offense is ready to go after a 76-31 thrashing of Rice, in which the Bulldogs put up 48 points in the second half. I don’t usually do totals but if the line comes out at something like 65 points, that’s definitely one to look at too.

Results After Week 14

Overall: 58-38 (59.8%)

This week: 2-0 (100%)

Rivalry Week is always a fun one. I still have to run the numbers on how many underdogs covered. One of these days I’m just going to take all underdogs ATS in rivalry games. I went 2-0 after backing out of my UK bet. Would have been 3-0, but oh well.

Florida +10 at Florida State (W) – Kind of surprised that Florida State actually won? Anyways, they obviously didn’t cover. Congrats to them being 3-9 ATS, covering by 2.5, 2.5, and 7.5 in those three games.

Western Kentucky +23 at Marshall (W) – WKU bringing the high powered offense against Marshall?  A total of 133 points and 1446 yards of total offense? Also not that much of a surprise. WKU actually winning? That was kind of a surprise. I was going to look like such a wizard predicting Marshall to go undefeated this year…thanks for screwing up that one. At least I made some money off it though.