After a week 1 that went pretty much as expected, little has changed at the top of our FCS win probabilities. Probably because there were no upsets, and the top teams didn’t play. But the excitement is coming!
| Team | WIN | CHAMPIONSHIP GAME | FINAL FOUR |
| North Dakota State | 41.7% | 56.5% | 71.4% |
| Illinois State | 14.2% | 29.8% | 40.2% |
| Northern Iowa | 12.1% | 24.8% | 33.1% |
| Jacksonville State | 10.5% | 20.8% | 59.0% |
| South Dakota State | 4.4% | 8.9% | 15.5% |
| New Hampshire | 3.3% | 12.7% | 37.8% |
| Chattanooga | 3.1% | 10.2% | 29.5% |
| Eastern Washington | 2.7% | 10.3% | 21.6% |
| Indiana State | 2.5% | 8.0% | 22.3% |
| Coastal Carolina | 1.9% | 5.1% | 11.5% |
| Villanova | 1.4% | 3.9% | 18.4% |
| Liberty | 0.8% | 2.3% | 11.0% |
| Sam Houston State | 0.6% | 2.2% | 11.7% |
| Fordham | 0.4% | 2.4% | 10.4% |
| Montana | 0.2% | 1.7% | 5.1% |
| Richmond | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.6% |
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