Pythagorean Wins – 2014

http://planb.ba/?search=canadian-cialis-jelly While actual wins are a fine way to judge a team (kind of), certain teams are luckier than others. Michigan State in 2012 lost 6 games by a combined 11 points. TCU in 2013 lost 4 games by a combined 11 points, including a 3-point overtime loss. Then there are the opposite cases, when teams like Auburn 2013 and Florida State 2014 seem to always win close games. Those teams will say they “just find a way to win” but let’s be honest – catches like this  and returns like this are nothing short of miraculously lucky. As a result there is a better way to adjust for this luck. By using the Pythagorean Expectation, we can estimate how many games this team would win if they performed the same (scored and allowed the same average number of points they did this season) but had an equal number of lucky breaks. The formula is relatively simple:

accutane buy online pharmacy (Points Scored ^ 2.37) / (Points Scored ^ 2.37 + Points Allowed ^ 2.37)

canadian generic viagra online The 2.37 exponent is basically solved in a regression to best fit the results. And honestly you won’t get too drastically different results using 2 or 3 as your exponent.

follow Let’s take a look below at what teams’ Pythagorean wins are for this year. Note that conference championships are not included in this data set:

Team OFF PTS DEF PTS PYTH WIN % PYTH WIN
TCU 46.7 20.9 87% 10.45
Alabama 36.2 16.8 86% 10.33
Ohio State 45.2 21.2 86% 10.29
Marshall 44.8 22 84% 10.12
Michigan St 42.9 21.1 84% 10.12
Oregon 45 23.2 83% 9.93
Mississippi 28.8 15.1 82% 9.86
Miss State 36.5 19.7 81% 9.74
Baylor 46.9 25.8 80% 9.66
Georgia 40.5 22.4 80% 9.63
Memphis 32.1 18.6 78% 9.42
Wisconsin 34.4 21.4 75% 9.06
Oklahoma 38.9 24.8 74% 8.93
LA Tech 38.4 24.8 74% 8.86
Kansas St 34.1 22.3 73% 8.79
Nebraska 38 24.9 73% 8.78
Boise State 39.8 26.5 72% 8.69
USC 35.1 23.8 72% 8.58
Colorado St 34.7 23.6 71% 8.56
Florida St 34.6 23.9 71% 8.47
GA Tech 36.9 25.6 70% 8.45
Duke 30.7 21.3 70% 8.45
Louisville 29.5 20.5 70% 8.44
Washington 28.5 22.1 65% 8.40
Central FL 27 18.9 70% 8.40
GA Southern 35.1 24.7 70% 8.36
Clemson 26.2 18.5 70% 8.34
Utah State 26.3 20.8 64% 8.26
LSU 25 17.9 69% 8.26
Stanford 23.9 17.5 68% 8.12
W Michigan 33.6 24.7 67% 8.10
Cincinnati 35.4 26.8 66% 7.91
Arkansas 28.3 21.5 66% 7.89
E Carolina 35.8 27.4 65% 7.84
Auburn 36.3 27.8 65% 7.84
Houston 27.7 21.3 65% 7.81
Arizona 34.8 27.5 64% 7.63
Arizona St 36.3 28.9 63% 7.58
Florida 28.3 23 62% 7.45
Arkansas St 36 29.4 62% 7.41
BYU 33.6 27.5 62% 7.40
Missouri 26.5 21.7 62% 7.39
UCLA 32.9 27.5 60% 7.26
N Illinois 30.2 25.3 60% 7.24
Air Force 29.7 24.9 60% 7.24
Minnesota 28.2 23.7 60% 7.22
Iowa 28 24.1 59% 7.06
San Diego St 24.6 21.3 58% 7.01
App State 31.4 27.3 58% 6.99
Boston Col 24.6 21.5 58% 6.95
Notre Dame 33 29.2 57% 6.86
W Kentucky 44 39.2 57% 6.82
Penn State 19.8 17.7 57% 6.79
Miami (FL) 28.9 25.9 56% 6.77
W Virginia 31.3 28.5 56% 6.66
Nevada 31.6 29 55% 6.61
Toledo 32.6 30.2 55% 6.54
Central Mich 25.6 23.8 54% 6.52
Navy 31.5 29.5 54% 6.47
Texas A&M 30.9 29.5 53% 6.33
VA Tech 22.4 21.5 52% 6.29
Temple 19.8 19.1 52% 6.26
Pittsburgh 28.9 27.9 52% 6.25
UAB 32.5 31.4 52% 6.24
Tennessee 26 25.2 52% 6.22
Texas State 31 30.2 52% 6.19
Utah 27.8 27.3 51% 6.13
TX El Paso 28.3 28.7 49% 5.90
S Carolina 32.6 33.1 49% 5.89
LA Lafayette 29.3 29.9 49% 5.86
Ball State 28.2 28.9 49% 5.83
Texas 22.6 23.2 48% 5.81
NC State 28.7 29.5 48% 5.80
Virginia 24.1 25.1 48% 5.71
Rice 28.7 30.3 47% 5.61
Michigan 20.9 22.4 46% 5.51
Buffalo 31.2 34.7 44% 5.25
Maryland 27 30.9 42% 5.05
California 36.7 42.1 42% 5.03
Middle Tenn 28.9 33.7 41% 4.92
S Alabama 22.1 25.8 41% 4.91
Northwestern 22.9 26.8 41% 4.89
Akron 20.9 25.2 39% 4.69
U Mass 27.3 33 39% 4.67
Old Dominion 31.9 38.9 38% 4.61
Florida Intl 23 28.1 38% 4.60
N Carolina 32.3 39.8 38% 4.55
Kentucky 26.5 32.8 38% 4.52
Oklahoma St 26.3 32.8 37% 4.46
Hawaii 20.4 27.1 34% 4.39
Bowling Grn 28.2 36.2 36% 4.27
Rutgers 24.5 31.5 36% 4.26
New Mexico 27.7 35.9 35% 4.21
LA Monroe 20.1 26.2 35% 4.18
Oregon St 25.4 33.2 35% 4.16
Ohio 19.3 25.4 34% 4.11
Fresno St 25.8 34 34% 4.10
Illinois 26.5 35.5 33% 4.00
Wash State 29.4 40.2 32% 3.87
Colorado 28.5 39 32% 3.87
Indiana 24.8 34.9 31% 3.70
Miami (OH) 23.5 33.2 31% 3.67
Texas Tech 29.5 41.8 30% 3.65
North Texas 22.6 32.3 30% 3.60
Fla Atlantic 24 34.4 30% 3.59
Purdue 22.8 33.4 29% 3.46
Army 21.4 31.5 29% 3.43
Idaho 25 37.3 28% 3.35
Syracuse 16.2 24.2 28% 3.34
UTSA 17.1 25.9 27% 3.27
Tulsa 24.7 39.2 25% 3.01
Wyoming 21.5 34.7 24% 2.92
Iowa State 24 39.3 24% 2.84
S Florida 15.5 26.6 22% 2.61
N Mex State 24.2 41.7 22% 2.59
Troy 20.6 36 21% 2.52
Kent State 16.4 29 21% 2.47
UNLV 22.7 40.7 20% 2.40
San Jose St 17.3 31.2 20% 2.38
S Mississippi 18.4 36.8 16% 1.95
Wake Forest 14.1 28.2 16% 1.95
Tulane 14.3 29.2 16% 1.87
Connecticut 15.2 31.1 15% 1.86
Vanderbilt 16.8 34.5 15% 1.85
Kansas 16.4 33.7 15% 1.84
Georgia State 21.3 43.9 15% 1.83
E Michigan 13.7 42.1 7% 0.78
S Methodist 11.1 41.3 4% 0.51

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