Week 13 Betting Results 2015

This Week: 3-0 (100%)

Season: 39-29 (57.4%)

Career: 98-68 (59.0%)

Hey, another perfect week! Mainly due to luck. A lot of luck. But I’ll take it!

Tulsa -4 at Tulane (W): I didn’t even realize this game as happening on Friday until it was already over. Apparently Tulsa was losing by a bunch and scored 21 points in the 4th quarter to cover. I’ll look into it more in the offseason, but with the line closing at 9.5 sounds like the consensus was that Tulsa was indeed a much stronger team, regardless of the outcome of the first three quarters.

UTEP +3 at UNT (W): If there was ever a game where a team just tried to give it away. UTEP had FIVE fumbles, including a backwards pass that bounced off the receiver and he just stared at the ball thinking the play was dead, then watched a UNT player walk up, take the ball and run it back for a touchdown. Unbelievable. UTEP somehow pulled out the win though.

Alabama -12.5 at Auburn (W): Thanks for the front door cover, Derrick Henry!

FCS Playoff Odds 2015 – Round 1

Every year I post simulated odds for the FCS playoffs. The below results are based on over 30,000 Monte Carlo simulations, and use Sagarin’s power ratings for each team. These power ratings are factored in along with home field advantage to create a point spread for each matchup, which is then converted into a win probability. Then the simulator generates a random number and based on that number decides the winner. For example, say a team has a 75% chance of winning, if the randomized number falls between 0-74, the favorite will be selected as the winner. If any number from 75-99 is selected, then the underdog is the winner. This method is applied to all games and all teams to determine who the winner will be in any given simulation. The results are then pasted and the simulation is repeated. After tallying the results we have the following.

Despite being the #3 seed, North Dakota State is still the favorite to win. But their odds are not nearly as good as prior years. The second highest rated team is Illinois State, which as we can see based on the “Top Four” odds is on a collision course with NDSU. On the other side, Jacksonville State is favored in the bracket and is actually the most likely team to reach the championship, just because they avoid the other two top teams on their side of the bracket. Also worth noting that James Madison has a very easy bracket – and has almost a 50% chance of making it to the Final Four despite being the #6 rated team. The other five teams with an equal power rating of 60 have between an 8%-30% chance of making it that far.

TEAM Power Rating Champion Finals Top Four Top Eight
North Dakota State 72.18 33.68% 44.22% 68.62% 82.53%
Illinois State 69.6 24.24% 36.64% 69.09% 87.16%
Jacksonville State 66.29 19.83% 48.54% 64.18% 78.34%
James Madison 60.82 4.53% 17.47% 48.22% 86.47%
Northern Iowa 65.5 3.87% 6.39% 12.97% 49.98%
South Dakota State 65.58 2.42% 3.97% 8.75% 14.60%
McNeese State 60.14 2.36% 10.67% 29.27% 56.91%
Chattanooga 60.72 1.70% 6.64% 12.81% 19.67%
Sam Houston State 60.86 1.42% 4.44% 11.68% 24.58%
Portland State 60.01 1.26% 2.96% 8.09% 47.28%
William & Mary 59.63 1.23% 2.93% 13.09% 44.73%
Southern Utah 61.15 1.01% 2.86% 7.99% 18.51%
Charleston Southern 54.83 0.63% 3.75% 10.51% 50.77%
Richmond 56.43 0.60% 1.67% 12.91% 53.95%
Coastal Carolina 57.28 0.44% 3.15% 7.65% 29.65%
The Citadel 57.38 0.35% 1.76% 4.19% 19.58%
Western Illinois 57.26 0.19% 0.82% 4.85% 12.81%
Montana 57.22 0.16% 0.31% 1.23% 2.86%
Eastern Illinois 52.69 0.06% 0.09% 0.35% 2.74%
New Hampshire 48.95 0.03% 0.54% 2.71% 11.27%
Fordham 50.65 0.00% 0.19% 0.66% 1.98%
Colgate 42.87 0.00% 0.00% 0.13% 2.27%
Duquesne 41.73 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 1.32%
Dayton 35.82 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03%

Week 13 Bets – Part 1

Tulsa -4 at Tulane:  I have Tulsa by 8.5. Having watched a few Tulane games and a handful of Tulsa games, I can’t justify at all why the game should be this close. The talent gap between these teams is larger that a touchdown on a neutral field. Looks like since then the line has moved to -7.

UTEP +3 at UNT: I have UTEP favored by 2, so not sure why they are underdogs. And the line hasn’t moved either. I guess you could have faith that UNT is improving after they fired their coach but there isn’t *that* much evidence to suggest massive improvement. Meanwhile UTEP actually did look much improved last week against LA Tech as they start to overcome the injuries from earlier this season. It’s going to be cold and rainy in Denton so expect UTEP’s run game to be their advantage.

Alabama -12.5 at Auburn: I know it’s a rivalry game, and that makes me uneasy about picking this, but I have the line at 1 and Zombie Alabama has been super dialed in over the past few weeks. I think they will be prepared for this game and I don’t see them sleeping on Auburn.

Week 12 Betting Results 2015

This Week: 4-5 (44%)

Season: 36-29 (55.4%)

Career: 95-68 (58.3%)

I had a lot of bets this week, more than the usual. My two pure handicap bets (Missouri and Utah) both didn’t pan out unfortunately. WKU and Navy continued their streak of beating up on weaker teams.

Western Kentucky -14 at FIU (W): Western Kentucky just has the type of offense that overmatches against lower level teams in its conference. I also had the game handicapped at 17 (I believe the line closed at about -20) so there was some value there too.

Louisiana Tech -21.5 at UTEP (L): This was a real head scratcher. LA Tech has had recently demolished ULL, MTSU, Rice, and UNT. Moreover, LA Tech was Top 10 in rush yards allowed per play! But for reason I will not understand, they struggled to move the ball against UTEP.

Georgia Southern +14 at Georgia (W): We all kind of knew how this would go. Georgia Southern is always scrappy and loves to play spoiler to in-state rivals like Georgia and Georgia Tech. And the triple option always runs down the clock which makes it even harder for the favorite to cover the spread.

Navy -9.5 at Tulsa (W): I had this at -14 and I love Navy if I don’t have to overpay. Line moved up to -14 by the end. Navy controlled this one all the way.

Missouri +9 vs Tennessee (L): This was supposed to be something about Mizzou playing inspired, and playing for bowl eligibility in their last home game…oh well. Line actually closed at 6 which is what I had it handicapped at.

Utah +1 vs UCLA (L): I initially saw this line and had the game at Utah -3 and thought “surely this line will float up.” Oh yeah, Booker is injured. Kinda missed that tidbit of information in my handicap.

Chattanooga +30.5 at Florida State (L): Chattanooga was supposed to put up a fight in this game, kind of, right? Because of the look ahead to Florida. Oh well.

The Citadel +20 at South Carolina (W): South Carolina was looking ahead to Clemson, and never plays against triple option teams. And surprise, they lost to The Citadel!

Charleston Southern +40.5 at Alabama (L): Saban wasn;t joking about not overlooking these teams. Charleston Southern is a darn good FCS team too. I had the game handicapped at -44 so I overpaid to get into this and looks like that was a mistake.

Week 11 Betting Results 2015

This Week: 3-1 (75%)

Season: 32-24 (57.1%)

Career: 91-63 (59.1%)

Oklahoma +7 at Baylor (W) – This was a pretty good handicap play overall. Line moved from 7 down to 1.5 by the close. OU has just been playing such good football.

Troy +10 vs Georgia Southern (L) – Ok, so this bet was a bit outside of my comfort zone. Maybe I shouldn’t have ventured this far out because I really haven’t watched Troy on TV all year, and Georgia Southern was coming off a bye week. Oh well.

Navy -20 vs SMU (W) – Navy has been making it pretty high on my raw predictor ratings, and I had them handicapped at 28 which seemed to be more accurate than 20. Sure enough, Navy ran away with this game.

Western Carolina +35 at Texas A&M (W) – As suspected, the Catamounts put up a good fight early in an effort to make their case that they deserve to be in the FCS playoffs, and A&M came out flat footed. The Aggies eventually pulled away but not nearly enough to cover.


Week 11 Bets – Part 1

Oklahoma +7 at Baylor – I have OU handicapped as slightly better than Baylor on a neutral field. I was honestly expecting Vegas to treat them as equals and drop the line at 3.5, so I was pleasantly surprised to see it at 7 and get that value. Of course, 7 points in games like this mean nothing when a team can score in less than a minute, but still.

Troy +10 vs Georgia Southern – I have this game handicapped at 6, and with Georgia Southern’s bye week call it 7.5. But there are so many reasons to love Troy here. They’ve been playing lights out the past few weeks, and with a 3-6 record their backs are up against the wall. They have to win out to make a bowl, and after this their last two games are pretty easy. So for them, they have to win this home upset to make a bowl. That would be a huge accomplishment for Neal Brown in his first year.

Navy -20 vs SMU – I had no intention of taking this but the line was just so off. I have the line set at 28, so we are way off here. I get that it’s a potential letdown spot for Navy after beating Memphis. But realistically that’s not an 8 point adjustment. And for an SMU defense that tends to wear down in the second half, they’ll be spending a lot of time on the field against Navy.