http://thefoolishobsession.com/budget-brand-clay-masks/?shared=email $25 Baylor/UNC score in first 5 minutes (L): Who knew Baylor was going to run so much after all? UNC scored on their first possession, but they didn’t even finish that possession until the clock had passed 5 minutes.
go $50 Leonard Fournette Over 190.5 rushing yards (W): I had 28 carries for 216 yards, and Fournette rushed 29 carries for 212 yards. Not bad. I might experiment more in the offseason with this and see if there’s any merit to this method, or find out the best way to forecast these things. (In bowl games where there is lots of data that we can use like full S&P+ and full season game splits).
Oregon +1 (exit bet, 5Dimes): Getting out of my TCU -1.5 bet with the news breaking this morning before the books catch wind. Since there is still $100 of exposure this will be covered in the next bet:
Oregon +1 (BetOnline, large bet) and Oregon pk: I will come back in a few days and take TCU on the moneyline once they become underdogs. Since part of this is +1 rather than pk, that will cover the exposure from the -1.5 bet, and will actually result in a big profit if the game result is TCU by 1, rather than a loss.
This is a sad way to end the season.
http://cinziamazzamakeup.com/?x=levitra-generico-Venezia Leonard Fournette OVER 190.5 rushing yards (-115): There are two ways to look at this, either look at LSU’s typical offense and then plug in Tech as a defense or vice versa.
Based on a linear regression comparing yards per rush attempt vs defense faced, LSU should run for 8.68 yards per rush against Texas Tech. LSU averages 25 carries, but with Tech’s faster tempo that should increase to 28 carries. Combine those two numbers and we get quanto costa viagra generico 50 mg online a Firenze 243 levitra generico online rushing yards.
Using the other approach, Texas Tech allows 5.9 yards per rush. Against LSU’s run offense, they should allow 6.79 yards per rush. At 28 rushes that will give them viagra generico 50 mg prezzo piu basso 190 yards per game.
Combine those two numbers and you’ve got about 216 yards per game. And add in for good measure the fact that Fournette is super upset about not getting invited for the Heisman, I think he’ll be looking to break 200 yards.
Not adding this to the official records (those are only for spread bets) but wanted to post a few prop bets I’ve made. Betting less than a standard bet, just something to do for fun.
$25 – “Will Baylor/UNC score in first 5 minutes?” YES (-115) – I imagine this game will have something like 40 possessions. That means 2.5 possessions in the first five minutes. I have trouble imagining both of these teams being held scoreless on their first drives and possible second. Will contribute better math later, but seems like a good bet.
Boise State -3 vs NIU: I have the game at -7 or so without any adjustments. The only major note on this game is NIU’s quarterback is out. Their backup played most of the MAC championship game and looked terrible against a BGSU defense that really isn’t that good. You never know how things will look with time to prepare for a bowl, but I like Boise in this one from a numbers perspective and for this reason.
Minnesota -3 vs Central Michigan: I can handicap this game anywhere from -3 to -9, but -3 is definitely on the low end of the spectrum. A line like -6 makes a lot more sense.
SDSU pk vs Cincinnati: I just can’t come up with a reason why Cincy should be favored. Is Gunner Kiel coming back? I should check that. But numerically I have SDSU favored by anywhere from 1.5 to 6 depending on method. I would handicap them as a 3 point favorite.
TCU -1.5 vs Oregon: This line has since dropped to ok and I’m kinda bummed. I have the game as -3 to -5 for the Frogs. Doctson is out so that’s something. More importantly maybe we should look at at Oregon’s performances with Vernon Adams and exclude some of those other strange results…maybe that’s the reason for the game being at pk. But I feel bad that I haven’t picked TCU this season so this one is obligatory.
The playoff picture is shaping up with the final four being played this weekend. NDSU is once again emerging as the favorite, but at 63% they’re not that heaviliy favored against the field just yet. Still, they will be a touchdown favorite against Jacksonville State, and a 10+ point favorite against anyone else. A matchup of those two teams would be very interesting due to their contrast in playing styles. Jax State’s potent running game (but still balanced offense) could give NDSU’s defense its toughest test of the year. SHSU is peaking late, and it’s now or never for their senior-laden squad, who are 8.5 point underdogs going into Jacksonville this weekend.
Things got shaken up this week as Colgate, the least likely team to advance, pulled off an upset over JMU! Now there are 8 remaining teams. The most likely to advance are the four host schools which come as no surprise – the three favorites NDSU, Illinois State, and Jacksonville State, and then Sam Houston State by virtue of their matchup with the “Cinderella” team Colgate.
This Week: 0-1 (0%)
Season: 39-30 (56.5%)
Career: 98-69 (58.7%)
Georgia Southern -22 vs Georgia State (L): This one was very, very weird. I feel like I was making this bet “just to have something to bet on” and for that I am very regretful. But Georgia State, as a 21 point underdog, went in and beat Georgia Southern–handily. They won 34-7 on the road, covering the spread by something like 48 points! And now they are going to a bowl. I never thought I’d see the day when this team made it to a bowl. This was a bet bet on my end. I’m still not sure what other people saw to think that Georgia State would cover, and I am interested to try and find out because it was clearly something that I missed.
After eight teams were eliminated from the playoff games, we were left with these results. (I’m a week behind so catching up on posting the simulator…I also didn’t update power ratings this week but will have them updated for the Round 3 simulations).
|North Dakota State
|Sam Houston State
|William & Mary
Georgia Southern -22 vs Georgia State: I have this game handicapped at -24 and jumped in early. The line actually moved against me and is now at -20.5 but oh well. I can’t find any injuries or any other reason to see the line go the other way.