Bowl Games Betting Results 2015

This Week: 3-0 (100%)

Season: 42-30 (58.3%)

Career: 101-69 (59.4%)

Boise State -3 vs NIU (W): NIU looked like they had never seen a tight end before. I’m excited for the future of Brett Rypien at Boise, and it was clear that it was a total mismatch putting him up against NIU’s 4th string quarterback or whatever they were on now. NIU was incapable of moving the ball, and looked very confused by Boise’s blitz packages.

Minnesota -3 vs Central Michigan (W): This game felt like it was a bad bet even though it won. In hindsight I guess it was ok. The box score looks like Minnesota was clearly the better team, but CMU really had them on the ropes for a while.

SDSU pk vs Cincinnati (W): Cincy had been a mess. I still never understood why Cincinnati would be at pk or even favored at one time. SDSU was a better team by all computer and statistical metrics, and had a better record, and had the best player on the field, and Cincy was without Gunner Kiel. Anyways, it showed really easily that SDSU was the better team.

The Great Oregon Arbitrage

As noted in the previous post, I got wind of the Boykin news before Vegas did and decided to put some larger bets on Oregon (+1, pk) and then went back and covered it with TCU moneyline bets when they were +7 after the news broke. The breakdown was below. Consider 1 unit to be the standard amount that I normally bet.

Bet #1a: Oregon +1 (-115): 5 units

Bet #1b: Oregon pk (-115): 5 units

Bet #2a: TCU ML +235: 5 units

Bet #2b: TCU ML +220: 0.6 units

The way this worked out, it guaranteed a profit of a little over 3 units regardless of the outcome!