Power Ratings and Win Totals 2016

watch My power ratings have been finalized for 2016! Below is my Top 25 and the full power ratings of all 128 teams. To estimate a point spread between two opponents, just subtract the power ratings. The average score is 70, so if your team has a power rating of 80 you could say they are 10 points better than the average team.

cheap viagra in usa I am very intrigued about LSU and Florida State being #2 and #3 because they really don’t have very good quarterback play. I think that will have to improve for them to really justify this projection, but they boast two of the top running backs in college football, so if the QB position improves, their ceiling is extremely high.

viagra reviews drug The Oklahoma State projection might be a bit high too. Mason Rudolph is a stellar QB, but despite returning 17 starters, the Pokes still have an average run game and lose two NFL draft picks on the defensive line.

TEAM Power Rating Avg Win Total Median Win Total
1 Alabama 94.95 9.58 10
2 LSU 94.72 9.69 10
3 Florida State 92.71 9.65 10
4 Oklahoma 92.00 9.44 10
5 Clemson 90.67 9.50 10
6 Michigan 90.31 9.92 10
7 Tennessee 88.26 8.93 9
8 Georgia 87.44 8.96 9
9 Oklahoma State 87.09 8.60 9
10 Ohio State 86.04 8.41 9
11 Stanford 85.72 8.07 8
12 USC 85.63 7.48 8
13 Louisville 85.51 8.75 9
14 TCU 85.38 8.20 8
15 Washington 83.50 8.16 8
16 Ole Miss 83.34 6.87 7
17 Oregon 83.16 7.87 8
18 Notre Dame 82.85 8.12 8
19 Baylor 82.67 7.80 8
20 Florida 82.35 7.39 7
21 Arkansas 82.04 6.82 7
22 West Virginia 81.68 6.99 7
23 Wisconsin 81.59 7.36 7
24 Auburn 81.59 6.77 7
25 UCLA 81.38 7.33 7
26 Boise State 81.36 9.66 10
27 BYU 81.33 7.81 8
28 Nebraska 81.04 8.11 8
29 Arizona 80.95 7.49 8
30 Iowa 80.89 7.95 8
31 Miami (FL) 80.54 7.58 8
32 Utah 80.21 7.18 7
33 Texas 79.99 6.69 7
34 Mississippi State 79.96 6.92 7
35 Pittsburgh 79.76 7.15 7
36 Virginia Tech 79.11 7.17 7
37 Michigan State 78.83 7.05 7
38 North Carolina 78.81 7.02 7
39 Texas A&M 78.79 6.36 6
40 Missouri 77.90 6.62 7
41 South Carolina 77.36 6.58 7
42 Houston 77.02 8.43 9
43 Kansas State 76.81 6.05 6
44 Texas Tech 76.63 6.27 6
45 Penn State 75.37 6.51 7
46 Georgia Tech 75.33 6.09 6
47 Washington State 75.08 6.16 6
48 Northwestern 74.00 6.19 6
49 Arizona State 73.13 5.58 5
50 South Florida 72.30 7.13 7
51 Boston College 72.28 6.31 6
52 NC State 72.15 5.32 5
53 Minnesota 72.12 6.39 6
54 Syracuse 72.10 4.97 5
55 Cincinnati 71.92 7.28 7
56 California 71.53 4.55 4
57 Iowa State 71.52 4.64 5
58 Vanderbilt 71.25 5.06 5
59 Air Force 70.80 8.31 9
60 Appalachian State 70.56 8.23 8
61 Duke 70.36 5.19 5
62 Temple 70.21 7.80 8
63 Colorado 69.99 4.60 4
64 San Diego State 69.98 8.14 8
65 Oregon State 69.69 4.50 4
66 Georgia Southern 69.63 7.87 8
67 Marshall 69.47 8.26 8
68 Rutgers 69.44 5.28 5
69 Virginia 69.35 4.65 4
70 Wake Forest 69.03 5.73 6
71 Illinois 68.63 4.81 5
72 Navy 68.55 6.44 6
73 Western Michigan 68.28 7.66 8
74 Northern Illinois 68.10 7.60 8
75 Connecticut 67.99 6.17 6
76 Maryland 67.99 5.43 5
77 Utah State 67.79 6.20 6
78 Toledo 67.57 7.44 8
79 Tulsa 67.04 6.28 6
80 Purdue 66.85 4.92 5
81 Nevada 66.69 7.09 7
82 East Carolina 66.67 5.55 5
83 Kentucky 66.45 4.22 4
84 Southern Mississippi 66.36 7.82 8
85 Western Kentucky 65.85 7.37 8
86 Central Michigan 65.66 7.14 7
87 San Jose St 65.52 5.79 6
88 Bowling Green 65.45 7.28 7
89 Memphis 65.27 5.85 6
90 Indiana 65.16 4.47 4
91 Arkansas State 63.57 7.07 7
92 UCF 63.06 5.12 5
93 Middle Tennessee 63.02 6.89 7
94 Troy 62.42 7.13 7
95 Louisiana Tech 61.86 6.61 7
96 Colorado State 61.19 5.27 5
97 New Mexico 60.27 5.48 5
98 SMU 60.24 4.35 4
99 Fresno State 60.04 4.88 5
100 Louisiana-Lafayette 59.85 5.86 6
101 Hawaii 59.23 4.86 5
102 Kent State 58.63 5.45 5
103 Ball State 58.59 5.99 6
104 Rice 58.45 5.99 6
105 Ohio 57.68 6.10 6
106 Army 57.32 5.47 5
107 Kansas 57.23 2.64 2
108 Old Dominion 57.10 5.98 6
109 Wyoming 56.89 4.30 4
110 Tulane 56.35 4.47 4
111 UTEP 54.20 5.87 6
112 Fla. International 53.86 4.80 5
113 Miami (OH) 53.77 4.43 4
114 Akron 53.71 4.20 4
115 UNLV 52.96 3.93 4
116 Florida Atlantic 52.93 4.15 4
117 Idaho 52.65 4.75 5
118 Buffalo 52.27 4.30 4
119 Louisiana-Monroe 51.62 4.26 4
120 Georgia State 50.91 4.03 4
121 UTSA 49.88 4.14 4
122 South Alabama 49.49 3.78 4
123 New Mexico State 49.34 3.29 3
124 North Texas 48.59 3.24 3
125 Eastern Michigan 47.46 3.48 3
126 Texas State 46.65 3.43 3
127 Massachusetts 45.59 2.53 2
128 Charlotte 44.82 3.11 3

Week 1 Bets 2016 – Part 1

http://acuherbal.com/?x=online-prescription-drugs-viagra watch UCF -19.5 vs SC State: I am so high on UCF to improve for so many reasons. They were 0-12 last year, so I guess anything is improvement from that. But I was reading on Phil Steele’s blog about how UCF sustained the second most injuries of any team last year (my beloved Horned Frogs were #1 in injured players). Scott Frost coming into this offense with a good handful of returning starters gives me a lot of optimism for their improvement. On a raw handicap I’ve got it at -24.5, call it -27.5 with an FCS premium. Add in the fact that injuries hurt in the present (last year) but help in the future (this year), and you’ve got a recipe for a big win and a team to improve a great amount.

http://toolsforwriters.com/?x=purchase-viagra follow site Syracuse -22 vs Colgate: I have this game handicapped at -29 without adjusting for the fact that this is an FBS vs FCS matchup (usually worth another 3 points). So let’s handicap this at -35. With Dino Babers installing a Baylor-esque system at Syracuse, it’s easy to imagine how the Orange, who return the 3rd most offensive production in the country, could take a big step forward on offense. We all remember how many times Baylor blew out lesser opponents, as their style is predicated on creating advantageous talent matchups on the edges of the field. Expect Syracuse to do the same against Colgate.

enter Fun fact, the last time Colgate beat Syracuse was 1950, a game in which Colgate put arsenic in the Syracuse team’s water jug. The result of the game was disputed in New York State Court but the case was never resolved. 

Fun fact #2: Colgate actually leads this series 31-30-5. Time to even it up, Orange!

 

Season Win Totals Bets 2016

see url TCU Over 8 Wins, including bowl games -120: I have TCU set to win 9+ games 50% of the time, and 8- games the other 50% of the time. So a fair win total is 8.50. However, that doesn’t include bowl games. Add in an extra 0.5 wins for a bowl game, and I’ve got a full game of margin to work with. A 7-5 regular season with an Armed Forces Bowl win in Fort Worth against Navy is a push, and 8+ wins in the regular season is profit.

viagra without prescription Utah Over 6.5 Wins, including bowl games -155: Similar story with TCU, I have Utah at 7.34 wins without any postseason. Add in 0.5 wins for a bowl game and we are pushing 8 wins on this team, with plenty of margin. The only trouble here is that Utah is in the mix of a very competitive Pac-12, so many of their games are complete tossups. In fact, of all FBS teams their win totals have the highest  viagra alternative drugs for adderall surplus variance (defined below) of any team. That makes this bet a bit dangerous, as a few injuries could throw them down pretty far, but hard to ignore the value here.

“Surplus Variance” is defined as the difference between the variance (standard deviation squared) of the win total results from a Monte Carlo simulation, minus the expected variance using an estimation formula STDEV = -0.0383x^2 + 0.4588x + 0.8696 where x represents the average win total. This curve is a exponential, as teams near the middle (6-win) range have a ton of close games and therefore a higher variance in outcomes. Teams that are great (9+ wins) or terrible (3- wins) will not have as much variance in their win total, because many of their games are not tossups and have more certain outcomes.

Games of The Year Bets – Part 1

source url BYU -1.5 vs Utah State: I’m not sure how in the world this ended up as a 1.5 point game, but I’ll take it. I have the game handicapped at BYU -16.5 (!) so that’s a pretty substantial difference. If these two teams played last year, the line would be BYU -12 according to Sagarin. Now BYU returns 4 more starters than Utah State, so it makes sense that the gap would widen even further. I really like Utah State’s QB Kent Myers. But they are replacing a ton on defense, including two linebackers who were drafted back-to-back in the 3rd round of the NFL draft (oh, and that LB coach left to be the Oregon State defensive coordinator). I just can’t justify a line that implies Utah State being favored on a neutral field.

get link TCU +9.5 at Baylor: I saw this line out and was tempted to take it early. Then when the scandal broke, I jumped on it. Even without all the losses of coaching staff and players, I have trouble justifying this being anything more than Baylor -3 (i.e. an equal game on neutral site).

source site Alabama pk at Tennessee: How is this a thing? Maybe Tennessee wins this game, but this certainly should not have a 50% chance of doing it. I have Alabama favored by 3.5 or 4 on the road, and that feels about right.