Week 5 Bets 2016 – Part 2

Texas Tech -7 vs Kansas (1st Quarter): Thanks to Reid for this great suggestion. Texas Tech is -28 for the game which should make them about 11-12 point favorites in the first half, not to mention Texas Tech scores more points in the first quarter than any other quarter…and Kansas gives up more points in the first quarter than any other.

Week 5 Bets – 2016

watch Louisville +3.5 at Clemson: Thanks to BOL for opening up this special +3.5 line before the other games. I was fortunate to see it around noon when it came up, and actually made a double-bet on it, and hedged out my second bet later in the week (with a combination of Clemson +2 and Clemson ML +100). The fact that Louisville opened as this big of an underdog was surprising, and Louisville has now moved to a 2 point road favorite at Clemson. My numbers have Louisville -3, and Sagarin has Clemson -1, so I think that having Louisville in the -1 to -2 range is probably fair.

http://junkyardangel.net/?x=viagra-canada-online Stanford +4 at Washington: I have this game handicapped at Stanford pk in my ratings and Stanford -4 on Sagarin. So would assume this line to come out around Stanford -2 but instead it opened at Stanford +4 and has sat 3-3.5 in that range all week. I’m struggling to understand why, especially since Stanford and Washington generally have low scoring games, meaning that field goal spread is much more meaningful.

follow url Ball State +3.5 vs Northern Illinois: This was a steal. I had Ball State handicapped as a 3 point favorite but they came out at 3.5 point underdogs. Since then, the line has moved to the other side and Ball State went from +3.5 point underdog to -4 point favorite. Northern Illinois is, unexpectedly, quite a dumpster fire, and was completely overmatched by WIU last week.

pilule viagra wikipedia drug Eastern Michigan +9 at Bowling Green: Trivia question – who is the only FBS team to give up 77 points in two different games this year? Bowling Green! I never thought I’d expect this game to be this close, even a year ago, but I have the game handicapped at BGSU -3. Turns out EMU isn’t that bad this year, and Bowling Green’s shaky defense is turning into a real liability without having Matt Johnson to bail them out at QB. If EMU pulls off the upset here, that would be huge for them.

viagra singapore prescription drugs Navy +10.5 at Air Force: I struggle to understand why this is so high. I have it at AFA -4, and Sagarin has AFA -2. Navy seems to be surviving just fine without Keenan Reynolds, and service academy games generally are not very lopsided. Since then the market has the line at +7 but I’m surprised it hasn’t fallen more.

http://kaufmanroslyn.com/?x=avastin-drug-maker-of-viagra Texas A&M -14 at South Carolina: You could go a lot of different ways handicapping this. I have the line at 9, but Sagarin has 21. But as a normal fan watching football, I can’t help but think Texas A&M wins by 14 or more against South Carolina. Their defense should shut down South Carolina quite easily, and A&M can score a handful of points against decent defenses. Looking at all the scores from this season (not to mention South Carolina just lost to UK and Texas A&M beat Arkansas pretty handily).

http://wphls.org/?x=pfizer-viagra-canada Fresno State +8 at UNLV: I’m so confused…this game opened at +8 and has since moved against me to +10. Why is this happening. I have it handicapped at Fresno -2 and Sagarin has it at UNLV -2. So it should be relatively close. Both teams quarterbacks are injured, so I assume that’s pretty much a wash. Maybe I don’t know something here, but I’ll stick to my guns.

tadalafil super active 20 mg prezzo più basso Alabama -32 vs Kentucky: The more I think about it, the less confident I am about it, because Alabama doesn’t have to win by this much. They could go up by 28 at the half and then tap the brakes. But whatever…the line has moved to 35, I have it handicapped at 37.

miglior sito per acquistare vardenafil generico 20 mg Houston -24.5 vs Connecticut: UConn’s defense is actually pretty good. So is Houston’s. So this could actually be a pretty low scoring game, but I still like Houston to put up some points. If UConn scores 3 points, Houston will need to score 28 to cover. I’ll take that.

cialis 5 mg generico preço UCF +7 at East Carolina: Ok, so I actually have this game at ECU -9, and Sagarin has ECU -4, so the blended handicap of 7 makes sense. But hey – subjectively, UCF looks like it really has made some quick improvement under Scott Frost, and some metrics like S&P+ are already onto this. Since the bet the line has moved to 3, so at least there are other people who have the same confidence in UCF here.

Week 4 Betting Results 2016

This Week: 4-3 (57.1%)

Season: 14-7 (66.7%)

Career: 115-76 (60.2%)

 

Syracuse +7 at UConn (W): As stated before, this book is struggling to handicap UConn properly. Until they fix that I’ll be betting against them a lot. Also, just wanted to point out that Syracuse QB Eric Dungey is currently ranked #6 in pass efficiency.

Western Michigan -4.5 vs Georgia Southern (W): The Broncos avenged last year’s blowout loss. Row that boat, P.J. Fleck.

Louisville -23.5 at Marshall (W):  Still betting on Louisville until they don’t cover.

UCF -3.5 at FIU (W): I thought FIU was bad, but wow. I believe UCF ran the same base zone read play like 5-7 times in a row once and they didn’t do much to stop it. UCF has shown some serious improvement in Year 1 under Scott Frost, but on the other side FIU has been a huge disappointment even by FIU standards.

Oklahoma State +10 at Baylor (L): Come on, Pokes…when you’re down 11 with a minute to go in the red zone, just kick the field goal and go for the onside kick! Instead they went for the touchdown (in one of the absolute worst exhibitions of clock management that I’ve ever seen) and failed. Baylor did a bit better than expected since that guy who beat his dog is back from “suspension” after missing Baylor’s three cupcake games.

Army -14.5 at Buffalo (L):  Army flew a 14 point lead in the 4th quarter and lost in overtime. I need to re-evaluate this one down the road to figure out what happened. Army outgained them by almost 200 yards for what it’s worth, so maybe this wasn’t the worst bet, but it was far from a slam dunk.

Washington -11 at Arizona (L): Apparently that backup QB Brandon Dawkins is pretty good…or at least is trouble for UW’s defense. The Huskies gave up some big run plays to Arizona, and combined with some untimely turnovers, were forced to go to overtime to win this one. The line moved from 11 to 15 on this game, but looking back on it…taking the favorite on the road, in a Pac-12 After Dark game, at a place notorious for taking down at least one top ranked opponent each year, with a new unknown quantity at QB with little footage for scouting…probably not the best idea.

Updated Power Ratings After Week 4 – 2016

At this point, four teams have separated themselves from the rest – Alabama, Ohio State, Louisville, and Michigan.

Below them in the next tier is Clemson, FSU, LSU, Stanford,  and Oklahoma.

TEAM Adjusted Power Rating
Alabama 97.73
Ohio State 95.77
Louisville 95.02
Michigan 94.82
Clemson 89.32
Florida State 89.14
LSU 88.91
Stanford 87.84
Oklahoma 87.13
Ole Miss 86.19
Texas A&M 85.46
Houston 85.29
Washington 85.26
Tennessee 85.14
TCU 85.02
Miami 84.88
Virginia Tech 84.31
Baylor 84.20
Nebraska 83.30
Wisconsin 83.29
Oklahoma State 82.88
Auburn 82.38
USC 82.36
Boise State 82.34
West Virginia 81.76
Florida 81.13
North Carolina 80.96
Iowa 80.89
BYU 80.77
Utah 79.98
UCLA 79.96
Missouri 79.89
Oregon 79.41
Kansas State 79.30
Notre Dame 79.28
Texas 79.09
Pittsburgh 79.08
Arkansas 79.07
Texas Tech 78.41
Georgia 77.76
Colorado 77.29
Mississippi State 77.23
South Florida 76.60
Arizona 76.18
Georgia Tech 75.80
Michigan State 74.94
Western Michigan 74.65
Arizona State 74.43
Toledo 74.33
Memphis 74.31
NC State 74.21
Washington State 73.90
South Carolina 73.62
Penn State 73.19
San Diego State 72.93
Tulsa 72.71
East Carolina 72.40
Minnesota 72.24
California 72.04
Northwestern 71.60
Duke 70.79
Iowa State 70.21
Air Force 69.95
Vanderbilt 69.77
Wake Forest 69.71
Troy 69.59
Navy 69.39
Cincinnati 69.28
Appalachian State 69.18
Temple 68.77
Central Michigan 68.53
Maryland 68.47
Oregon State 68.43
Southern Mississippi 68.31
Western Kentucky 68.05
Syracuse 67.84
Virginia 67.65
Rutgers 67.30
UCF 66.67
Utah State 66.37
Georgia Southern 66.34
Purdue 66.10
Indiana 65.90
Army 65.81
Boston College 65.57
Marshall 65.45
Illinois 65.39
Louisiana Tech 65.25
Kentucky 65.02
Middle Tennessee 64.77
Connecticut 64.46
Nevada 63.80
Northern Illinois 61.94
SMU 61.39
New Mexico 60.69
Ball State 60.37
San José State 60.36
Ohio 59.97
Colorado State 59.46
Fresno State 59.10
Tulane 58.96
Wyoming 58.82
Akron 58.08
Hawaii 57.84
Louisiana Lafayette 57.83
Arkansas State 57.21
Old Dominion 56.35
Kent State 56.15
Kansas 56.08
Miami (OH) 55.29
UNLV 53.95
Rice 53.63
Buffalo 52.62
Louisiana Monroe 52.55
Georgia State 52.44
South Alabama 51.06
Massachusetts 50.93
Florida Atlantic 50.65
North Texas 50.63
Texas San Antonio 50.58
Eastern Michigan 50.29
Bowling Green 49.71
Idaho 49.28
UTEP 47.54
Florida Intl 46.46
New Mexico State 46.30
Texas State 44.35
Charlotte 43.68

Week 4 Bets

Syracuse +7 at UConn: It seems like BOL’s power ratings have a different value for UConn than I do (and the market does) by at least 4 points. I have this game handicapped at nearly a pick’em and I have seen the same move towards that level, from +7 to +3. This coming after last week when they had UConn favored by 7 vs Virginia, and that line also moved down to 3. I’m really excited to see what they open up with for the Houston game next Thursday. They might open the line around 17-18, when it should be more like 23-24.

Western Michigan -4.5 vs Georgia Southern: This is definitely one of my favorite G5 matchups and I’m so glad this home and home was scheduled. I have the game handicapped at 10. Sagarin has it at 17. These teams were projected to be even at the beginning of the season, which would put this line at -3. But since the beginning of the season, WMU has been on a march to conquer to Big Ten West, beating Northwestern 22-21 and Illinois 34-10. They also destroyed NC Central 70-21. It appears that P.J. Fleck has this boat rowing fast, and WMU has covered the spread in all three games by an average margin of +13. Georgia Southern, on the other hand, played their first two games in line with expectations before barely scraping by ULM, despite being a 27 point favorite. From my viewpoint and from a handicapping perspective, this -4.5 line offers a lot of value. It looks like the market agrees as the line has since jumped to -7.

Louisville -23.5 at Marshall:  I’m just going to keep betting on Louisville until they don’t cover, ok? Marshall’s loss to Akron last week (65-38) was a weird one. They slightly outgained Akron and controlled the clock, but had 4 turnovers to Akron’s 1 turnover. But the glaring statistic here is that Marshall gave up 11.8 yards per pass. If that is any sign of Marshall’s pass defense, this game will be over in a hurry. Weird things happen in Huntsville, but I’ll put my money on the Cards to put this one away early. I have the game handicapped at 25.5. This game allegedly opened at -19 but I never saw that…all lines came out at the same time so it was a lot to take in.

UCF -3.5 at FIU: I have this game handicapped at -10.5 and so does Sagarin. I hate to use the transitive property, especially when betting on a road team, but UCF took Maryland to overtime, and FIU got stomped 41-14 by Maryland. If you dive into FIU’s season against the spread you see a program in free fall. They’re -11 ATS on average and have missed the spread by more than a touchdown in all three games. Meanwhile, UCF has shown promise against Maryland and is +5.2 ATS so far. I’ll give the points and put my money on Scott Frost in this one.

Oklahoma State +10 at Baylor: I was really surprised to see +10, that seems like a lot of points. I have this game at +2.5 but Sagarin has it at +7. Baylor has been slow to start, and that could come back to bite them here if they start slow against Oklahoma State. The Pokes losing to Central Michigan did nothing to help their credibility, but I do think it was a turning point for them, especially on offense.

Army -14.5 at Buffalo:  If I asked you, who is the #1 team that has the highest margin of covering the point spread this year, who would you say? Louisville? They are #3. Ohio State? They are #2. That’s right, your beloved Army Black Knights have covered the spread by an average of 28.8 points per game, and now face a Buffalo team that is 0-2 ATS with a margin of -15 ATS. I have the game handicapped at 13 (my model is slower to adjust), but Sagarin has it at 22, and I feel very ok in taking Army here. Buffalo lost to Albany (ouch) and lost badly to Nevada. Meanwhile, Army has blown the doors off the spread each game, last week being a 66-14 win over UTEP…a game in which they were favored by 3.5.

Washington -11 at Arizona: In the words of one of my Arizona coworkers, “Our starting nose tackle weighs less than our kicker. That should tell you all you need to know about our defense.” Washington is currently ranked #1 in passing success rate, and Jake Browning has been ridiculously efficient (albeit against lesser competition). Arizona, meanwhile, allowed 9.1 yards per pass against Grambling State and ranks #112 in passing success rate on defense.

Missed out on: Florida State -1.5 at USF: I saw this line originally at FSU -1.5 (+100) and really balked at it, because it appeared some people were betting on USF. So I went back to double check the line, saw that it should be 6. By that time the line had jumped up to 3.5, and then to 4.5, and so on. I am kind of wary that FSU is so banged up, and USF is so hot right now, that they could pull off the upset. But if I had to make a bet, I’d definitely bet on FSU as the favorite to win still.

Missed out on: Ole Miss -3 vs Georgia: Apparently this line opened at -2. I was just too slow, by the time I went to be on -3 it had jumped to -4.5 and I decided not to take that. Looks like now it’s up to -7 or so. You could make a case that Ole Miss is tired from Alabama, or something like that, but at the end of the day this game should be handicapped anywhere from 6 to 13 points without those subjective adjustments. I probably should have taken that -4.5 but oh well.

Week 3 Betting Results 2016

This Week: 4-3 (57.1%)

Season: 10-4 (71.4%)

Career: 111-73 (60.3%)

 

Arizona State -18.5 at UTSA (L): Arizona State really struggled to win this game. They had three turnovers and forced zero, so without that margin they may have covered. Still, they only outgained UTSA by about 140 yards – far from the dominant offensive performance we saw the week before. Maybe I was wrong for overestimating what it means to score 68 on Tech’s defense, and maybe I should have expected a letdown from ASU going into a weeknight game on a short week against a “lesser” opponent.

North Dakota State +16 at Iowa (W): That’s why you never, ever, ever schedule North Dakota State.

Virginia +7 at Connecticut (W): Funny story, I actually double-bet this and hedged out at kickoff at UConn -3. The hedge pushed and both won on the double-bet so I made twice my money. Regarding the game, UVA actually outgained UConn by over 100 yards and was +1 in turnover margin. The fact that they lost this game is rather remarkable. And the fact that they scored 10 points on 381 yards is ridiculous. They had horrible drive finishing, with multiple offensive possessions going for 6-7 plays and multiple first downs, but ending in a punt. Their last two drives were a 7-playdrive ending in a  turnover on downs and a 9-play drive ending in a missed field goal. Some of that is luck, but some of it is a glaring red flag that Virginia’s offense is going to struggle to drive across the field.

East Carolina +7 at South Carolina (W): They covered, barely. This game was ridiculous. Absolutely ridiculous. ECU’s Zay Jones tied the all time FBS single game record for most receptions, and they had 9 points going into the final minutes of the game! So how do this happen? Let’s do a quick breakdown.

Yards: ECU 519, SC 312

First Downs: ECU 34, SC 13

Time of Possession: ECU 38:25, SC 21:35

Turnovers: ECU 4, SC 0

And the way they turned the ball over was so painful. They fumbled in the end zone, then had a pass intercepted in the end zone, then had another pass intercepted just outside the end zone, and then fumbled again while running into…the end zone. I was definitely right in taking this bet, and I think in any other day minus the fumbles, ECU wins outright.

Wisconsin -30 vs Georgia State (L): This one I’ll have to take a step back and re-evaluate. What went wrong here?

Louisville +4 vs Florida State (W): I thought Louisville would come out with more energy and win at home. I thought Lamar Jackson had a high ceiling and would showcase much of his talent in this game. But what we saw on Saturday was just ridiculous.

Western Kentucky -15 at Miami Ohio (L): Watched the majority of this game but will need to revisit in more detail. At halftime WKU had outgained them 281-94 but had three turnovers. They led 14-3 at the half. Then Miami Ohio outgained WKU 326-123 in the second half, and had one turnover of their own. Miami Ohio controlled the clock for 35 minutes, and most interestingly, they held WKU to 1 for 11 on third downs. That was the difference maker and the reason they didn’t cover. Now the question is was there any evidence out there prior to this game to make me think Miami Ohio would be able to do this defensively?

Updated Power Ratings After Week 3

Updated power ratings after Week 3. Surprise! Louisville jumped up a lot. I still have Houston #22. Personally I think they’re a bit better than their power rating suggests, but power ratings are often slow to adjust at this point (see LSU still hanging on to that #5 spot…that probably wont last) since much of it still factors in preseason projections. Once we get to midseason and start factoring in scores and phasing out preseason projections, this will start to change.

Why don’t we adjust so quickly to early game results? For every Houston there is another team like South Alabama that shows promise early, only to come crashing back down to reality in subsequent weeks. South Alabama beat Mississippi State on the road in Week 1. They were favored to finish with 3 wins, and near the bottom of the Sun Belt. But after beating Misssissippi State (projected 30 points better) on the road, one might over-react and say that South Alabama is much improved. Sure, Mississippi State is probably bad too, but the floor for MSU can’t be that low, so South Alabama must be dramatically better than expected.

But in subsequent weeks, South Alabama lost at home to Georgia Southern 24-7, and then lost again to Louisiana-Lafayette 28-23. Both of these outcomes were within one point of my power ratings predictions.

Now with all that said, there are subjective reasons why we could say that a team should do better or worse than the numbers. The primary X-factor is coaching, and the second would be experienced quarterback play. Both of these work in Houston’s favor and, subjectively, are a reason why I probably should have expected them to continue to play at such a high level.

Also, the fact that Oklahoma is almost out of the AP Poll at #25 is ridiculous.

Rank TEAM Power Rating
1 Alabama 97.33
2 Ohio State 95.84
3 Louisville 94.45
4 Michigan 92.77
5 LSU 90.28
6 Clemson 88.14
7 Florida State 87.67
8 Stanford 87.31
9 Oklahoma 87.20
10 Washington 86.26
11 Tennessee 84.79
12 Miami 84.51
13 TCU 83.96
14 Oklahoma State 83.96
15 Texas A&M 83.81
16 Ole Miss 83.35
17 Baylor 83.28
18 USC 82.96
19 Nebraska 82.76
20 West Virginia 82.00
21 Boise State 81.97
22 Houston 81.94
23 Virginia Tech 81.78
24 Florida 81.65
25 North Carolina 81.62
26 Notre Dame 81.54
27 Iowa 81.51
28 Auburn 81.19
29 Arkansas 80.89
30 Georgia 80.77
31 Oregon 80.71
32 BYU 80.71
33 UCLA 80.66
34 Wisconsin 80.58
35 Kansas State 80.17
36 Utah 79.56
37 Texas 79.15
38 Mississippi State 79.00
39 Pittsburgh 78.58
40 South Florida 78.24
41 Michigan State 77.81
42 Missouri 77.75
43 Georgia Tech 77.14
44 Texas Tech 76.68
45 Colorado 76.15
46 Washington State 76.09
47 South Carolina 75.59
48 Penn State 75.42
49 Arizona 75.35
50 Toledo 74.38
51 NC State 74.27
52 Arizona State 73.82
53 Western Michigan 73.81
54 Minnesota 73.63
55 California 72.81
56 San Diego State 72.43
57 Northwestern 72.05
58 Cincinnati 70.85
59 East Carolina 70.46
60 Central Michigan 70.38
61 Tulsa 69.81
62 Vanderbilt 69.65
63 Navy 69.44
64 Appalachian State 69.42
65 Wake Forest 69.16
66 Air Force 69.06
67 Oregon State 68.96
68 Temple 68.86
69 Duke 68.69
70 Maryland 68.35
71 Western Kentucky 68.32
72 Memphis 67.44
73 Army 67.41
74 Utah State 67.40
75 Boston College 67.34
76 Iowa State 67.12
77 Southern Mississippi 67.01
78 Syracuse 66.92
79 Rutgers 66.83
80 Georgia Southern 66.80
81 Troy 66.71
82 Indiana 66.59
83 Marshall 66.17
84 Virginia 65.94
85 Louisiana Tech 65.54
86 Connecticut 65.52
87 Purdue 65.46
88 Illinois 65.44
89 Middle Tennessee 64.62
90 Nevada 64.57
91 San José State 63.59
92 UCF 63.49
93 Kentucky 63.20
94 Northern Illinois 62.92
95 Ohio 61.29
96 SMU 60.89
97 Ball State 60.85
98 New Mexico 60.73
99 Tulane 59.64
100 Arkansas State 59.28
101 Colorado State 58.21
102 Fresno State 58.16
103 Akron 57.97
104 Wyoming 57.96
105 Hawaii 57.89
106 Louisiana Lafayette 57.27
107 Kent State 56.72
108 Bowling Green 56.71
109 Old Dominion 55.63
110 UNLV 55.16
111 Rice 54.59
112 Kansas 54.05
113 Miami (OH) 53.85
114 South Alabama 53.43
115 Louisiana Monroe 52.77
116 Georgia State 52.47
117 Texas San Antonio 51.42
118 Buffalo 51.15
119 Florida Atlantic 50.29
120 North Texas 49.78
121 Florida Intl 49.77
122 Eastern Michigan 49.35
123 New Mexico State 49.29
124 Massachusetts 49.29
125 UTEP 48.97
126 Idaho 48.18
127 Texas State 47.84
128 Charlotte 43.71

WEEK 3 BETS – PART 2

Arizona State -18.5 at UTSA: I have this game handicapped at 24. Was really impressed with Wilkins last week and ASU’s offense looks like it hasn’t lost a beat since last year (ok, it was against Tech’s defense…but still.) I love the Sun Devils playing on turf, which generally leads to more points for the offense. If ASU plays some defense (admittedly a bigger IF than it should be), then they should be fine here.

North Dakota State +14.5 at Iowa: Never, ever, ever, ever schedule North Dakota State. I have this game handicapped at -15. I’m not adding an FCS premium for the Bison because of who they are. This line opened at -9 but soared to -18.5 over the past few days. I got in at +14.5 and feel like I still got a good deal here.