Louisville -39 vs Murray State: I got this in the preseason and I believe the current line of high 40s is about right.
This Week: 2-3 (40.0%)
Season: 9-11 (46.6%)
Career: 149-113 (56.9%)
SMU +3 vs Arkansas State (W): This wasn’t too surprising as SMU has looked the part of a very good team this year.
Mississippi State +6.5 at Georgia (L):The only conclusion we can have here is that LSU is terrible. Or Georgia is awesome. Or both. FEI is actually projecting them #2 in the country, so maybe there is something to that.
Clemson -30.5 vs Boston College (L): Despite almost covering this game was close in the fourth quarter. Clemson is great, but they were just not trying. They beat great teams by 20 points, but can’t seem to beat awful teams by 30.
North Carolina +3 (L): I didn’t realize going into this how ridiculously injured North Carolina is.
WKU -5.5 vs Ball State (W): The Hilltoppers pull through. Ball State is terrible.
SMU +3 vs Arkansas State: This line has moved in SMU’s favor since origination. Assuming they don’t suffer from the “TCU Effect”, the Ponies should be able to handle Arkansas State, and their offense seems to be able to score 30+ points on everyone they play.
Miss St +6.5: Shockingly large underdog? I’m pretty sure they just beat LSU, so I really struggled to understand why this line hung around so high. We will see.
Clemson -30.5: Big line, but these teams are worlds apart. Assuming they don’t take a break after a big road win, Clemson should coast.
North Carolina +3: I have this handicapped at pk and I feel like both teams have met their expectations minus Duke-Northwestern.
WKU -5.5: I have them handicapped at over a touchdown. Despite WKU looking not like the same team after Brohm…Ball State sucks a lot.
This Week: 1-3 (25.0%)
Season: 7-8 (46.6%)
Career: 147-110 (57.2%)
Howard +21 at Richmond (L): Ok fine, so the Howard bet is now off.
Illinois +17.5 at USF: Illinois looked so good against WKU, but I guess that just means WKU is bad. USF and Flowers made easy work of them. Illinois really tried to lose this one too, with a ton of bad penalties.
Coastal Carolina -1.5 at UAB (L): Maybe I should stay away from betting on two teams that we know nothing about.
Virginia Tech -21 at East Carolina (W): The only real thing that we could be confident in was that ECU is terrible.
Howard +21 at Richmond: So the handicap is 30, I looked at it a day late so have no idea what the opening line is. But I’m taking Howard until I lose a bet.
Illinois +17.5 at USF: I have the game around 10 points or so. And hey Illinois looked good in an upset of WKU! Really though I think their defense is pretty sound, enough to keep Flowers in check to an extent. Lots of points here, so I’ll take it.
Coastal Carolina -1.5 at UAB: So UAB is an interesting case because nobody knows how to really handicap them. You could have this game’s line at 1, or 8, or 16 depending on which model you’re using. Because nobody knows how two years of no football affects a program. With that said, the line at 1.5 assumes a best-case for UAB…that they pick up exactly where they left off as if they never lost any playing time. And that’s a bold assumption. Call the line closer to -7 is my guess.
Virginia Tech -21 at East Carolina: So a lot of this is definitely “Look what WVU did at ECU, and VA Tech beat WVU, so this could get ugly.” But moreover I really like VA Tech’s defense and more importantly ECU looks like the biggest steaming pile of any team in the eastern seaboard.
This Week: 4-4 (50.0%)
Season: 6-5 (54.5%)
Career: 146-107 (57.7%)
Howard +33 at Kent State (W)
Stanford +9 at USC (L)
San Jose State +29 at Texas (L)
LSU -33 vs Chattanooga (W)
Oklahoma +9 at Ohio State (W)
Wisconsin -31 vs FAU (L)
Wake Forest +2 at Boston College (W)
Syracuse -8.5 vs MTSU (L)
- Howard +33 at Kent State: We all know the story of Caylin Newton by now. Before any of this adjustment Howard should be a 34 point underdog. We don’t know how much the presence of little Newton affects this team, but it’s my opinion that his 45+ point cover is worth much more than a 4.5 point adjustment on the team. I would guess it could be as much as 10-20 points of adjustment for him.
Stanford +9 at USC: Stanford thrives at offensive success rate, and this was one of USC’s biggest weaknesses in their opening game against Western Michigan. My model is bullish on Stanford, so much that they’re only a 1 point underdog here. Sagarin shows a similar pk handicap. And while Bill’s line of +5 is probably more reasonable, there’s tons of value at +9.
San Jose State +29 at Texas: I feel pretty confident in a -23 handicap here, and I don’t see how any potential bounce back Texas could have justifies having the line at 29. The line of 23 comes from our expectation of Texas to improve, minus three points or so to slow our expectations when we found out that was not true. If anything, I would have expected the line to be under 20 due to people over-reacting to Texas losing to Maryland, not the other way around.
LSU -33 vs Chattanooga: This line should be 41 across the board. It’s already on the move to 37. I bet it closes at 41. Chattanooga probably scores zero points, and Chattanooga allowed over 40 points to Jacksonville State. Put simply, I like LSU’s chances to cover. [Editors Note: Line currently is now 41]
Oklahoma +9 at Ohio State: This is a more technical handicap I guess since we’re splitting hairs, but I think the line should be 7. Call the range 6 to 8. So I will take 9. Baker Mayfield should be able to move the ball on Ohio State. The rest I’m not sure enough.
Wisconsin -31 vs FAU: I think 31 is a best-case scenario for this line. I have it handicapped at 39, and I can totally see it going like last week (and many Wisconsin games) where things get broken open in the second half.
Wake Forest +2 at Boston College: Shouldn’t Wake be favored in this game? I have them as a 3 point favorite. Both teams performed about as expected last week, but my model, and Bill’s, and Sagarin’s, all have Wake favored in some form.
Syracuse -8.5 vs MTSU: This one just feels odd to me. But MTSU struggled last week. I have this game handicapped at 19 (because my numbers love returning starters) and Bill has it at 16. Sagarin has it at 8 right on the line. So I figure there is some upside here. It feels weird to think about Brett Stockstill struggling to score on
|San Diego State||72.26|
|Texas San Antonio||59.60|
|San José State||57.96|
|New Mexico State||51.33|
This Week: 2-1 (66.7%)
Season: 2-1 (66.7%)
Career: 142-103 (58.0%)
Alabama -3 vs Florida State (W): Nobody ever got rich betting against Alabama in opening games.
Texas State -17.5 vs Houston Baptist (L): I still struggle to understand why Vegas and Bill Connelly have Houston Baptist handicapped higher than I do. They’ve only been around for a few years in Division 1 which makes it a hard handicap, but they had a Sagarin rating of 13 for the past two years, then jumped to 33 last year. So I had them handicapped in the mid to high 20s this year, but apparently they’re supposed to be on a higher trajectory than that.
Arkansas State +20.5 at Nebraska (W): This line closed at 14 and Arkansas State gave them a good scare. I only bet this as a pure handicap play, but I will say Nebraska has struggled in opening games (see McNeese State) against scrappy G5 and FCS opponents.