San Jose State +16 at BYU: Until proven otherwise I’m not sure if BYU can even score 16 points.
Buffalo +3 at Akron: I actually have Buffalo favored by 3 and I think they’re trending in the right direction under Leipold.
Freano State -15.5 at UNLV: The books don’t appear to have adjusted much for their game against San Diego State. Fresno State is hit with a great record against the spread.
UCF -28 vs East Carolina: I have it handicapped at 33, and more importantly, UCF is on a warpath against a team that’s 1-4 ATS.
Texas Tech +7 at West Virginia: I watched West Virginia play live and they were very good. There’s always the change WVU’s odd fronts confuse Texas Tech. But I have the game handicapped at +3 and that feels more right than +7.
Purdue +18 at Wisconsin: Ok I’m going against my numbers here (21 point line) but I still really like Purdue and they seem to play up against good teams. Plus Wisconsin games are typically low scoring affairs so 18 points still seems like a lot.
Washington State -13.5 at Cal: Wazzu hasn’t really disappointed me yet, even in their letdown spot. Cal is dealing with a lot of injuries and looked completely unable to move the ball against Washington last week. I have the game handicapped at 14 and love anything below that, and honestly I would pay even a few more points to adjust for Cal’s injuries.
This Week: 1-3 (25.0%)
Season: 11-14 (44.0%)
Career: 151-116 (56.6%)
UCF -11.5 at Cincinnati (W): UCF is hot and is the most improved team in college football so far.
Idaho pk vs Louisiana Lafayette (L): I know I’ve said this before, but I probably should stay off lines that I don’t really know. Still, this line closed at Idaho -6.5 so I got an awesome deal…it just didn’t work out.
Maryland +31 at Ohio State (L): Maryland had sold me after their upset of Minnesota that they could remain competitive despite the injuries they had sustained. That was not the case against Ohio State who has played the best of any team after its loss to Oklahoma.
Cal +27 at Washington (L): Nice job missing that field goal, Cal. More importantly though I didn’t realize how injured Cal is. I’ll be accounting for that in future bets.
UCF -11.5 at Cincinnati: I love this. UCF is hot and got some value (fair value is 14 before any heat adjustments for UCF). Cincinnati has had a terrible record against the spread so far, and UCF has outperformed more than anyone.
Idaho pk vs Louisiana Lafayette: This line should be closer to 7. I’m not sure why it opened at pk but I’m gonna keep a look out next week for mis-priced Idaho and Louisiana Lafayette lines. FEI has Louisiana Lafayette favored, but most other models like Idaho a lot.
Maryland +31 at Ohio State: I know that Ohio State usually beats up on inferior teams, but 31 points is so much. I’m not really concerned about Maryland playing another backup QB, as Ohio State will only have one game of film and the kid seems competent. With the exception of UCF (and that’s explainable), this Maryland team has looked extremely hot in every game, and has had two road upsets as double-digit underdogs.
Cal +27 at Washington: Let’s roll. I have the game closer to 23-25, which I suppose isn’t much when the line is this big. But 27 is so much for a conference game in which two teams should be relatively competitive.
This Week: 1-0 (100.0%)
Season: 10-11 (47.6%)
Career: 150-113 (57.0%)
Louisville -39 vs Murray State (W): This line closed at about 49.5 so I got a great deal on the line. Luckily they scored in the fourth quarter for the front door cover.