Week 5 Bets – 2018

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Power Ratings After Week 4 – 2018

TEAM Power Rating
Alabama 103.90
Ohio State 97.26
Clemson 95.87
Georgia 95.67
Penn State 92.39
Auburn 91.56
West Virginia 91.03
Michigan 90.87
Washington 90.87
Oklahoma 88.14
Wisconsin 87.53
Notre Dame 86.53
Stanford 86.46
Mississippi State 86.42
Michigan State 86.16
Texas A&M 85.00
Florida 84.81
Boise State 84.35
Florida State 84.11
Miami 83.85
Texas 83.55
Iowa 82.10
Oklahoma State 81.86
North Texas 81.68
TCU 81.24
South Carolina 80.77
Utah 80.69
Missouri 80.37
USC 79.50
Duke 79.49
Boston College 78.70
Arizona State 78.54
Fresno State 77.86
Syracuse 77.46
NC State 77.39
California 76.93
Texas Tech 76.52
Kentucky 76.48
Georgia Tech 76.36
Virginia Tech 76.16
Iowa State 75.98
Northwestern 75.74
Utah State 75.70
Washington State 75.63
Arizona 74.89
Memphis 74.65
Kansas State 74.41
Baylor 74.10
Tennessee 73.96
BYU 73.95
Purdue 73.37
Middle Tennessee 73.27
Houston 72.75
LSU 72.25
Maryland 72.06
San Diego State 71.83
Louisville 71.64
Vanderbilt 71.42
Appalachian State 71.32
Tulane 71.08
Colorado 70.63
Virginia 70.30
Oregon 70.28
Wake Forest 70.10
South Florida 69.88
Pittsburgh 69.80
Minnesota 69.52
UCF 69.51
North Carolina 69.10
Temple 69.06
Toledo 68.64
Arkansas 68.40
Ole Miss 68.09
Northern Illinois 67.24
Indiana 67.10
Cincinnati 67.00
Troy 66.87
Marshall 66.52
UCLA 66.26
Nebraska 66.19
Navy 65.92
Air Force 65.72
Oregon State 65.66
Akron 65.59
Kansas 65.58
Buffalo 65.53
Army 65.10
Arkansas State 64.95
Georgia Southern 64.54
Tulsa 64.35
Western Michigan 64.23
Louisiana Tech 63.58
Nevada 63.57
Ohio 63.17
Wyoming 62.44
Illinois 62.04
UAB 61.38
SMU 60.91
UNLV 60.71
Eastern Michigan 60.35
Florida Atlantic 60.05
East Carolina 59.94
Southern Mississippi 59.11
Miami (OH) 59.11
Fla. International 58.27
Louisiana Monroe 58.23
Louisiana Lafayette 57.05
Texas State 56.77
South Alabama 56.75
Coastal Carolina 56.49
Rutgers 56.39
New Mexico 55.59
Kent State 55.55
Central Michigan 55.44
Massachusetts 54.81
Old Dominion 54.62
Hawaii 53.90
Ball State 53.67
Colorado State 53.32
Bowling Green 52.93
San Jose State 51.86
Liberty 51.82
UTSA 51.50
Western Kentucky 48.94
Connecticut 47.45
Rice 47.11
New Mexico State 46.55
Charlotte 45.79
Georgia State 45.64
UTEP 43.10

Power Ratings After Week 3 – 2018

TEAM Power Rating
Alabama 103.92
Georgia 95.44
Ohio State 95.22
Clemson 94.18
Washington 92.14
Oklahoma 91.02
Auburn 90.86
Penn State 90.68
Mississippi State 90.63
West Virginia 89.66
Michigan 88.16
Stanford 87.41
Oklahoma State 86.72
Michigan State 86.49
Wisconsin 86.27
Miami 86.05
Texas A&M 85.04
Florida State 84.42
Boise State 84.33
Notre Dame 84.22
Iowa 83.41
TCU 82.71
Texas 82.12
Florida 82.12
Boston College 81.61
Virginia Tech 81.05
Utah 80.66
Missouri 80.65
Duke 80.46
USC 80.10
North Texas 79.74
South Carolina 78.30
Georgia Tech 78.09
Syracuse 77.93
Fresno State 77.84
Arizona State 77.32
California 76.90
Tennessee 76.70
Utah State 76.17
Iowa State 76.06
NC State 76.05
Kansas State 75.84
Northwestern 75.72
Memphis 75.25
Washington State 75.07
Louisville 75.00
BYU 74.00
Vanderbilt 73.94
San Diego State 73.57
Middle Tennessee 73.25
Tulane 73.17
Minnesota 73.05
Baylor 73.01
Arizona 72.70
Wake Forest 72.45
Houston 72.36
Kentucky 72.32
Texas Tech 71.70
LSU 71.47
South Florida 70.78
Colorado 70.61
Purdue 70.50
Pittsburgh 69.92
Oregon 69.37
Arkansas 69.15
North Carolina 69.02
Nebraska 68.95
Appalachian State 68.59
Maryland 68.57
UCF 68.40
Temple 68.14
Marshall 67.91
Oregon State 67.89
Cincinnati 67.45
Ole Miss 67.29
Toledo 67.02
Virginia 66.98
Northern Illinois 66.98
Indiana 66.81
Kansas 66.71
Troy 66.54
Navy 66.39
UCLA 66.24
Akron 65.55
Tulsa 65.31
Air Force 65.29
Nevada 65.23
Arkansas State 65.01
Georgia Southern 64.52
Louisiana Tech 64.40
Illinois 63.80
Western Michigan 63.73
Ohio 62.76
Wyoming 62.42
Army 62.27
Buffalo 62.13
UAB 61.36
Florida Atlantic 61.20
UNLV 60.70
SMU 60.48
Rutgers 59.83
East Carolina 59.07
Southern Mississippi 58.68
Eastern Michigan 58.65
Louisiana Monroe 58.59
Louisiana Lafayette 57.90
Texas State 57.72
Miami (OH) 57.35
Kent State 56.38
South Alabama 56.18
Fla. International 56.11
Ball State 56.04
Coastal Carolina 55.67
New Mexico 55.57
Bowling Green 54.72
Colorado State 54.43
Hawaii 54.34
Central Michigan 54.12
Massachusetts 53.93
Liberty 53.80
San Jose State 51.85
UTSA 50.57
Old Dominion 49.77
Rice 47.58
Connecticut 47.02
Charlotte 46.69
Western Kentucky 46.60
Georgia State 46.16
New Mexico State 45.58
UTEP 44.09

Week 3 Bets – 2018

Memphis -23.5 vs Georgia State: I think Memphis is very undervalued especially after a loss last week in which they had a 98% post-game win expectancy, meaning Navy got a ton of lucky bounces. If you re-organized the plays in that game and gave 50% odds to each team for fumble recoveries, Memphis should have won that game by multiple touchdowns.

Maryland -11.5 vs Temple: Also not sure why this opened so low, but I have this game at -16.

Tulsa +2.5 vs Arkansas State: I actually have Tulsa favored by 6 in this game. Most systems have them between -4 to -7. I am not sure why they opened as underdogs, they’re now slight favorites but still lots of value there.

Baylor pk vs Duke – I already had Baylor -7 before accounting for Duke’s injuries and boy did they sustain some big injuries last week. Game should be handicapped at -10. Still hate Baylor though.

Virginia -5 vs Ohio: I‘m going to go out on a limb here, I have the game at -5 but Ohio has been terrible against the spread so far and other systems have the game handicapped between -12 to -23.

Houston Over 35 Points at Texas Tech: I’m actually surprised the point total is this low for the game. This should be a high scoring affair.

POWER RATINGS AFTER WEEK 2 – 2018

TEAM PR
Alabama 100.8
Ohio State 94.9
Clemson 94.5
Auburn 94.4
Georgia 93.0
Washington 91.4
Oklahoma 91.4
Stanford 89.7
Mississippi State 89.7
West Virginia 89.7
Michigan 89.1
Wisconsin 89.1
Florida State 88.4
Penn State 88.4
Boise State 87.0
Michigan State 86.5
Notre Dame 85.5
Miami (FL) 84.8
Texas A&M 84.3
Oklahoma State 84.1
Iowa 83.3
TCU 83.1
USC 82.8
Utah 81.5
Boston College 81.5
Missouri 81.3
Virginia Tech 81.1
Florida 81.1
Georgia Tech 79.7
Texas 79.5
Louisville 79.3
Duke 79.2
California 78.8
Arizona State 78.5
Northwestern 78.5
Tennessee 78.5
South Carolina 78.3
North Texas 76.9
Kansas State 76.5
NC State 76.1
Iowa State 75.8
Middle Tennessee 75.8
Fresno State 75.6
Tulane 75.6
Utah State 75.0
Memphis 74.6
Baylor 74.3
Houston 74.1
Syracuse 74.0
Kentucky 72.8
Vanderbilt 72.7
Washington State 72.6
Wake Forest 72.6
Arizona 72.5
San Diego State 72.5
Minnesota 72.5
Maryland 72.3
Arkansas 72.1
BYU 71.3
Oregon 70.5
Nebraska 70.5
Ole Miss 70.5
South Florida 70.5
Texas Tech 70.0
Colorado 70.0
Purdue 69.9
North Carolina 69.1
Appalachian State 68.6
UCLA 68.6
UCF 68.4
Pittsburgh 68.4
Toledo 68.4
Northern Illinois 68.2
Oregon State 68.2
LSU 68.0
Marshall 67.9
Tulsa 67.2
Cincinnati 66.9
Navy 66.5
Virginia 66.0
Air Force 65.3
Nevada 65.0
Troy 65.0
Indiana 64.7
Temple 64.5
Rutgers 64.5
Louisiana Tech 64.4
Georgia Southern 64.3
Illinois 64.1
Ohio 63.8
Wyoming 63.3
Arkansas State 63.2
Florida Atlantic 62.9
Akron 62.9
Kansas 62.1
Buffalo 62.1
Army 61.9
Western Michigan 61.6
UNLV 60.1
SMU 59.7
East Carolina 59.1
UAB 59.0
Texas State 59.0
Massachusetts 59.0
Eastern Michigan 58.8
Kent State 58.8
Southern Mississippi 58.7
Louisiana Monroe 58.6
Ball State 58.2
Miami (OH) 58.0
Louisiana Lafayette 57.9
Bowling Green 56.0
Colorado State 55.6
South Alabama 54.9
Hawaii 54.4
New Mexico 54.1
Liberty 53.8
Central Michigan 53.0
Coastal Carolina 52.6
Fla. International 51.1
San Jose State 50.7
Old Dominion 50.3
UTSA 50.0
Rice 47.6
New Mexico State 47.1
Connecticut 46.9
Georgia State 46.9
Charlotte 46.3
Western Kentucky 42.4
UTEP 42.4

Week 2 Bets – 2018

Memphis -7 at Navy: Memphis covered last week’s spread by a good amount and I have them favored by 12 in this game. Other models range between 7 points (Sagarin) to 26 poitns (S&P+) but the upside appears to be there for Memphis.

Utah State -18 vs New Mexico State: Similar to the pick above, Utah State showed they could play with Michigan State which may be a good sign of things to come. It’s more likely that Utah State is an improved team than it is that Michigan State is worse. New Mexico State did not show well either in their openers against Wyoming and Minnesota.

Liberty +10.5 at Army: I was very impressed by Liberty’s offensive play against what was supposed to be a much improved Old Dominion defense. Look for the Flames to put up points again in this one.

Iowa -3.5 vs Iowa State: I must be going crazy but I have this handicapped at -11. I suppose you could give Iowa State credit for having a semi-bye week but only so much.

Auburn -50.5 vs Alabama State: This is a huge spread in a sandwich game. Auburn should hardly try. It appears Auburn will play their starters in this game, I have it handicapped at 67 and Bill C has it at 80.

Houston Over 37 Points – I’m taking this bet all season long for Houston to go over on expected points.