Week 6 Picks 2019

Liberty -4.5 at New Mexico State: I think NMSU still has more room to fall in the power ratings. Liberty has shown some promise with wins over Buffalo and appears to be healthy. When you look at per game metrics, this shouldn’t be as close of a game as projected – I would put it closer to a 10 point spread.

UMass + 27 at FIU: I can’t believe I’m betting on UMass. This feels like catching a falling knife but UMass is currently 33 points below the average team – if they finished there it would make history as one of the worst teams. There’s really nowhere to go but up from here. All my numbers have this around a 21 point spread, so let’s take the points.

Penn State -24.5 at Purdue: After the injury of Rondale Moore, Purdue is even more banged up than before. Expect them to struggle to move the ball much at Penn State.

Michigan State +20.5 at Ohio State: Expect Michigan State’s defense to come ready to play today and make this a close game. Not sure about the offense. But historically the Spartans always make this one close. Numerically a 20 point spread is justified but it also assumes Ohio State is basically tied for #1 in the nation. If they’re anything below that, the spread should be more like 17.

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