Power Ratings After Week 3 – 2018

TEAM Power Rating
Alabama 103.92
Georgia 95.44
Ohio State 95.22
Clemson 94.18
Washington 92.14
Oklahoma 91.02
Auburn 90.86
Penn State 90.68
Mississippi State 90.63
West Virginia 89.66
Michigan 88.16
Stanford 87.41
Oklahoma State 86.72
Michigan State 86.49
Wisconsin 86.27
Miami 86.05
Texas A&M 85.04
Florida State 84.42
Boise State 84.33
Notre Dame 84.22
Iowa 83.41
TCU 82.71
Texas 82.12
Florida 82.12
Boston College 81.61
Virginia Tech 81.05
Utah 80.66
Missouri 80.65
Duke 80.46
USC 80.10
North Texas 79.74
South Carolina 78.30
Georgia Tech 78.09
Syracuse 77.93
Fresno State 77.84
Arizona State 77.32
California 76.90
Tennessee 76.70
Utah State 76.17
Iowa State 76.06
NC State 76.05
Kansas State 75.84
Northwestern 75.72
Memphis 75.25
Washington State 75.07
Louisville 75.00
BYU 74.00
Vanderbilt 73.94
San Diego State 73.57
Middle Tennessee 73.25
Tulane 73.17
Minnesota 73.05
Baylor 73.01
Arizona 72.70
Wake Forest 72.45
Houston 72.36
Kentucky 72.32
Texas Tech 71.70
LSU 71.47
South Florida 70.78
Colorado 70.61
Purdue 70.50
Pittsburgh 69.92
Oregon 69.37
Arkansas 69.15
North Carolina 69.02
Nebraska 68.95
Appalachian State 68.59
Maryland 68.57
UCF 68.40
Temple 68.14
Marshall 67.91
Oregon State 67.89
Cincinnati 67.45
Ole Miss 67.29
Toledo 67.02
Virginia 66.98
Northern Illinois 66.98
Indiana 66.81
Kansas 66.71
Troy 66.54
Navy 66.39
UCLA 66.24
Akron 65.55
Tulsa 65.31
Air Force 65.29
Nevada 65.23
Arkansas State 65.01
Georgia Southern 64.52
Louisiana Tech 64.40
Illinois 63.80
Western Michigan 63.73
Ohio 62.76
Wyoming 62.42
Army 62.27
Buffalo 62.13
UAB 61.36
Florida Atlantic 61.20
UNLV 60.70
SMU 60.48
Rutgers 59.83
East Carolina 59.07
Southern Mississippi 58.68
Eastern Michigan 58.65
Louisiana Monroe 58.59
Louisiana Lafayette 57.90
Texas State 57.72
Miami (OH) 57.35
Kent State 56.38
South Alabama 56.18
Fla. International 56.11
Ball State 56.04
Coastal Carolina 55.67
New Mexico 55.57
Bowling Green 54.72
Colorado State 54.43
Hawaii 54.34
Central Michigan 54.12
Massachusetts 53.93
Liberty 53.80
San Jose State 51.85
UTSA 50.57
Old Dominion 49.77
Rice 47.58
Connecticut 47.02
Charlotte 46.69
Western Kentucky 46.60
Georgia State 46.16
New Mexico State 45.58
UTEP 44.09

Week 3 Bets – 2018

http://cinziamazzamakeup.com/?x=comprare-viagra-generico-pagamento-online-a-Roma Memphis -23.5 vs Georgia State: I think Memphis is very undervalued especially after a loss last week in which they had a 98% post-game win expectancy, meaning Navy got a ton of lucky bounces. If you re-organized the plays in that game and gave 50% odds to each team for fumble recoveries, Memphis should have won that game by multiple touchdowns.

http://cinziamazzamakeup.com/?x=dove-comprare-vardenafil-originale-20-mg-in-italia Maryland -11.5 vs Temple: Also not sure why this opened so low, but I have this game at -16.

viagra generico 25 mg prezzo piu basso a Venezia Tulsa +2.5 vs Arkansas State: I actually have Tulsa favored by 6 in this game. Most systems have them between -4 to -7. I am not sure why they opened as underdogs, they’re now slight favorites but still lots of value there.

http://cinziamazzamakeup.com/?x=miglior-sito-per-comprare-viagra-generico-50-mg-a-Firenze Baylor pk vs Duke – I already had Baylor -7 before accounting for Duke’s injuries and boy did they sustain some big injuries last week. Game should be handicapped at -10. Still hate Baylor though.

http://thefoolishobsession.com/tag/mor-cosmetics/ Virginia -5 vs Ohio: I‘m going to go out on a limb here, I have the game at -5 but Ohio has been terrible against the spread so far and other systems have the game handicapped between -12 to -23.

acquistare viagra generico 50 mg pagamento online a Roma Houston Over 35 Points at Texas Tech: I’m actually surprised the point total is this low for the game. This should be a high scoring affair.

POWER RATINGS AFTER WEEK 2 – 2018

TEAM PR
Alabama 100.8
Ohio State 94.9
Clemson 94.5
Auburn 94.4
Georgia 93.0
Washington 91.4
Oklahoma 91.4
Stanford 89.7
Mississippi State 89.7
West Virginia 89.7
Michigan 89.1
Wisconsin 89.1
Florida State 88.4
Penn State 88.4
Boise State 87.0
Michigan State 86.5
Notre Dame 85.5
Miami (FL) 84.8
Texas A&M 84.3
Oklahoma State 84.1
Iowa 83.3
TCU 83.1
USC 82.8
Utah 81.5
Boston College 81.5
Missouri 81.3
Virginia Tech 81.1
Florida 81.1
Georgia Tech 79.7
Texas 79.5
Louisville 79.3
Duke 79.2
California 78.8
Arizona State 78.5
Northwestern 78.5
Tennessee 78.5
South Carolina 78.3
North Texas 76.9
Kansas State 76.5
NC State 76.1
Iowa State 75.8
Middle Tennessee 75.8
Fresno State 75.6
Tulane 75.6
Utah State 75.0
Memphis 74.6
Baylor 74.3
Houston 74.1
Syracuse 74.0
Kentucky 72.8
Vanderbilt 72.7
Washington State 72.6
Wake Forest 72.6
Arizona 72.5
San Diego State 72.5
Minnesota 72.5
Maryland 72.3
Arkansas 72.1
BYU 71.3
Oregon 70.5
Nebraska 70.5
Ole Miss 70.5
South Florida 70.5
Texas Tech 70.0
Colorado 70.0
Purdue 69.9
North Carolina 69.1
Appalachian State 68.6
UCLA 68.6
UCF 68.4
Pittsburgh 68.4
Toledo 68.4
Northern Illinois 68.2
Oregon State 68.2
LSU 68.0
Marshall 67.9
Tulsa 67.2
Cincinnati 66.9
Navy 66.5
Virginia 66.0
Air Force 65.3
Nevada 65.0
Troy 65.0
Indiana 64.7
Temple 64.5
Rutgers 64.5
Louisiana Tech 64.4
Georgia Southern 64.3
Illinois 64.1
Ohio 63.8
Wyoming 63.3
Arkansas State 63.2
Florida Atlantic 62.9
Akron 62.9
Kansas 62.1
Buffalo 62.1
Army 61.9
Western Michigan 61.6
UNLV 60.1
SMU 59.7
East Carolina 59.1
UAB 59.0
Texas State 59.0
Massachusetts 59.0
Eastern Michigan 58.8
Kent State 58.8
Southern Mississippi 58.7
Louisiana Monroe 58.6
Ball State 58.2
Miami (OH) 58.0
Louisiana Lafayette 57.9
Bowling Green 56.0
Colorado State 55.6
South Alabama 54.9
Hawaii 54.4
New Mexico 54.1
Liberty 53.8
Central Michigan 53.0
Coastal Carolina 52.6
Fla. International 51.1
San Jose State 50.7
Old Dominion 50.3
UTSA 50.0
Rice 47.6
New Mexico State 47.1
Connecticut 46.9
Georgia State 46.9
Charlotte 46.3
Western Kentucky 42.4
UTEP 42.4

Week 2 Bets – 2018

Memphis -7 at Navy: Memphis covered last week’s spread by a good amount and I have them favored by 12 in this game. Other models range between 7 points (Sagarin) to 26 poitns (S&P+) but the upside appears to be there for Memphis.

Utah State -18 vs New Mexico State: Similar to the pick above, Utah State showed they could play with Michigan State which may be a good sign of things to come. It’s more likely that Utah State is an improved team than it is that Michigan State is worse. New Mexico State did not show well either in their openers against Wyoming and Minnesota.

Liberty +10.5 at Army: I was very impressed by Liberty’s offensive play against what was supposed to be a much improved Old Dominion defense. Look for the Flames to put up points again in this one.

Iowa -3.5 vs Iowa State: I must be going crazy but I have this handicapped at -11. I suppose you could give Iowa State credit for having a semi-bye week but only so much.

Auburn -50.5 vs Alabama State: This is a huge spread in a sandwich game. Auburn should hardly try. It appears Auburn will play their starters in this game, I have it handicapped at 67 and Bill C has it at 80.

Houston Over 37 Points – I’m taking this bet all season long for Houston to go over on expected points.

Power Ratings After Week 1 – 2018

A few big movers to note – Liberty moved up over 5 points due to their huge win over Old Dominion, as did Fresno State after putting up 79 points on Idaho.

While some may suggest excluding these extreme results, previous backtesting has proven that adjusting power ratings by how much they cover the spread should always be done in a linear manner – not diluted once margins of victory get very high.

Also noteworthy is my numbers are still bullish on Michigan despite their loss at Notre Dame. Michigan also had very bad turnovers luck in that game. Boise State is quietly #14 on the list, making their upcoming visit to Oklahoma State very exciting.

 

# TEAM Power Rating
1 Alabama 100.43
2 Clemson 96.23
3 Ohio State 93.56
4 Georgia 92.09
5 Oklahoma 91.99
6 Washington 91.04
7 Wisconsin 91.04
8 Auburn 90.56
9 Stanford 90.03
10 Notre Dame 89.75
11 Mississippi State 89.01
12 Michigan State 88.63
13 Michigan 87.66
14 Boise State 86.15
15 Virginia Tech 86.11
16 Florida 85.25
17 Penn State 85.09
18 Oregon 85.04
19 Texas A&M 84.35
20 USC 84.29
21 Iowa 84.25
22 Oklahoma State 83.55
23 LSU 83.52
24 Georgia Tech 83.05
25 Miami (FL) 82.88
26 TCU 82.57
27 Utah 82.28
28 Northwestern 81.71
29 Texas 81.54
30 Florida State 81.42
31 Missouri 81.26
32 Boston College 81.05
33 South Carolina 80.98
34 West Virginia 80.73
35 UCF 80.69
36 California 79.85
37 Kansas State 78.91
38 Ole Miss 78.28
39 Arizona State 78.11
40 Duke 77.60
41 Fresno State 77.42
42 NC State 76.62
43 Arizona 76.54
44 Iowa State 76.49
45 Memphis 76.25
46 Arkansas 75.92
47 Baylor 75.76
48 Louisville 75.69
49 North Carolina 74.11
50 San Diego State 73.63
51 Texas Tech 73.38
52 Pittsburgh 73.32
53 Utah State 73.32
54 Purdue 72.91
55 Nebraska 72.54
56 Washington State 72.46
57 Minnesota 72.11
58 Wake Forest 71.95
59 BYU 71.79
60 Syracuse 71.78
61 Houston 71.55
62 Vanderbilt 70.44
63 Maryland 70.36
64 Kentucky 70.16
65 UCLA 69.59
66 Louisiana Tech 69.55
67 Colorado 69.42
68 Toledo 69.10
69 Northern Illinois 68.97
70 Nevada 68.71
71 South Florida 68.66
72 Marshall 68.45
73 Tennessee 68.35
74 Rutgers 67.48
75 Temple 67.05
76 Virginia 67.02
77 Appalachian State 66.85
78 Air Force 66.81
79 Tulsa 66.61
80 Navy 66.20
81 North Texas 65.75
82 Cincinnati 65.32
83 Arkansas State 65.21
84 Indiana 65.03
85 Wyoming 64.87
86 Western Michigan 64.50
87 Ohio 64.46
88 Middle Tennessee 63.64
89 UAB 63.61
90 Georgia Southern 63.05
91 Florida Atlantic 62.69
92 Tulane 62.06
93 SMU 61.67
94 Massachusetts 61.53
95 Oregon State 60.93
96 Troy 60.89
97 Miami (OH) 60.88
98 Buffalo 60.85
99 Army 60.58
100 Illinois 60.12
101 Kansas 60.05
102 Southern Mississippi 59.92
103 UNLV 59.62
104 Bowling Green 59.17
105 Louisiana Monroe 58.61
106 Louisiana Lafayette 58.52
107 Eastern Michigan 57.07
108 South Alabama 56.93
109 Western Kentucky 56.39
110 Liberty 56.31
111 Central Michigan 56.18
112 Ball State 55.42
113 East Carolina 55.35
114 Akron 54.88
115 Hawaii 54.29
116 New Mexico 53.57
117 Colorado State 53.02
118 Old Dominion 52.29
119 San Jose State 52.16
120 Fla. International 50.07
121 New Mexico State 49.98
122 UTSA 49.78
123 Charlotte 49.20
124 Coastal Carolina 49.15
125 Connecticut 49.15
126 Rice 48.71
127 Georgia State 47.64
128 Kent State 47.27
129 Texas State 44.70
130 UTEP 43.88

Week 1 Bets 2018

James Madison +14 at NC State: The Wolfpack only returns 9 starters from last year’s senior heavy team – the least of any team in the ACC. Now they go up against the JMU dukes, who went to the FCS National Championship last year and won it all the year before. If NC State overlooks them at all, there’s a good chance that JMU wins the game outright. I’ve got the game handicapped at 7.5 so anything better than that is great value.

Houston -24 vs Rice: I may be betting on Houston a lot this year. Rice has already played a game, meaning they have less time to prepare and are playing a team that already has film on them. Rice on the other end hasn’t seen any of the new Houston offense. It doesn’t help their case that they struggled with Prairie View A&M. I’ve got it handicapped at 25, but would take any bet up to 27.

 

 

 

NCAA Football Power Ratings Forecast – 2018 Season

Team Rating
1 Alabama 99.14
2 Clemson 96.51
3 Georgia 93.16
4 Wisconsin 92.12
5 Ohio State 92.09
6 Washington 91.50
7 Michigan State 90.41
8 Auburn 90.27
9 Stanford 89.87
10 Oklahoma 89.57
11 Notre Dame 89.55
12 Michigan 88.03
13 Mississippi State 87.79
14 Penn State 87.30
15 USC 85.22
16 Miami (FL) 84.81
17 Florida 84.48
18 Florida State 84.39
19 Oregon 84.35
20 Boise State 84.17
21 Texas 83.59
22 Texas A&M 83.36
23 Virginia Tech 83.30
24 Iowa 83.17
25 Oklahoma State 83.06
26 TCU 82.53
27 Northwestern 82.06
28 LSU 81.75
29 Kansas State 81.63
30 Utah 81.57
31 South Carolina 81.18
32 Georgia Tech 80.84
33 Missouri 80.78
34 California 80.19
35 Boston College 79.41
36 UCF 79.20
37 Arizona 78.52
38 West Virginia 78.32
39 Baylor 77.75
40 Duke 77.67
41 Louisville 77.15
42 Arizona State 76.58
43 Iowa State 76.56
44 NC State 76.31
45 Texas Tech 76.16
46 Ole Miss 75.64
47 Arkansas 75.36
48 San Diego State 73.94
49 North Carolina 73.92
50 Pittsburgh 73.56
51 Memphis 72.89
52 Purdue 72.71
53 Nebraska 72.61
54 Wake Forest 72.15
55 UCLA 72.09
56 Fresno State 72.05
57 Houston 71.89
58 Utah State 71.69
59 Tennessee 70.90
60 Syracuse 70.54
61 Kentucky 70.52
62 Louisiana Tech 70.46
63 Navy 70.29
64 Minnesota 70.25
65 Northern Illinois 70.19
66 BYU 69.95
67 Washington State 69.92
68 South Florida 69.10
69 Temple 68.84
70 Maryland 68.45
71 Marshall 68.15
72 Ohio 67.98
73 Vanderbilt 67.78
74 Rutgers 67.21
75 Colorado 66.70
76 Tulsa 66.59
77 Toledo 66.55
78 Middle Tennessee 66.43
79 Wyoming 66.18
80 Western Michigan 65.87
81 Nevada 65.57
82 Indiana 65.39
83 Florida Atlantic 65.25
84 Arkansas State 64.84
85 Appalachian State 64.78
86 Virginia 64.59
87 SMU 64.11
88 Air Force 63.81
89 Georgia Southern 63.63
90 North Texas 63.43
91 Troy 63.01
92 Cincinnati 62.94
93 Oregon State 62.54
94 Kansas 62.35
95 UAB 62.24
96 Tulane 61.99
97 Illinois 61.50
98 Miami (OH) 61.30
99 Buffalo 61.04
100 Army 60.64
101 Bowling Green 59.99
102 Massachusetts 59.79
103 Louisiana-Monroe 59.74
104 UNLV 58.83
105 Colorado State 58.52
106 Southern Mississippi 58.00
107 Old Dominion 57.58
108 East Carolina 57.16
109 Louisiana-Lafayette 56.53
110 South Alabama 56.14
111 Central Michigan 55.94
112 Western Kentucky 55.45
113 Akron 54.93
114 Eastern Michigan 54.47
115 New Mexico State 53.40
116 San Jose State 53.20
117 Ball State 53.03
118 New Mexico 52.93
119 UTSA 51.43
120 Liberty 51.12
121 Connecticut 50.76
122 Fla. International 49.82
123 Rice 49.81
124 Coastal Carolina 49.07
125 Hawaii 47.72
126 Charlotte 47.42
127 Kent State 45.99
128 Georgia State 45.52
129 UTEP 45.47
130 Texas State 45.07